Fact check: What is the current Muslim population worldwide and how is it projected to change by 2050?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the comprehensive analyses provided, the current Muslim population worldwide is approximately 2.0 billion people, representing 25-26% of the global population as of 2020-2025 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. This represents significant growth from 1.7 billion Muslims in 2010, marking a 21% increase over the decade ^{[4] [3]}.

Islam is definitively the fastest-growing major religion globally, with Muslims increasing by 347 million people between 2010 and 2020 - a growth rate that was twice as fast as the rest of the world's population ^{[4] [5]}. This growth is primarily driven by natural demographic increase rather than religious conversion, as Muslims are having more children than they are dying ^[5].

Projections for 2050 indicate the Muslim population will reach approximately 2.8 billion people, comprising 30% of the world's population ^{[2] [6]}. This growth trajectory means Muslims will nearly equal Christians by 2050, with projections showing 2.8 billion Muslims versus 2.9 billion Christians ^[6].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question lacks several crucial contextual elements that emerge from the analyses:

• Regional concentration and variation: Muslims are heavily concentrated in specific regions, particularly the Middle East-North Africa region and sub-Saharan Africa, areas experiencing high overall population growth ^[4]. The analyses reveal dramatic regional differences, such as North America seeing a 52% increase in Muslim population from 2010 to 2020, reaching 5.9 million ^[3].
• European demographic implications: The analyses include specific projections for Europe, where the Muslim population is expected to rise from 4.9% in 2016 to 7.4% by 2050, even with zero migration scenarios due to higher birth rates ^[7]. This represents a significant demographic shift that could influence political and social dynamics.
• Driving factors behind growth: The analyses emphasize that this growth is primarily due to natural demographic factors rather than conversion, with very little change resulting from people converting to or leaving Islam ^[5]. This distinction is important for understanding the sustainability and nature of the growth.
• Comparative religious landscape: The data shows Muslims will become nearly equal to Christians by 2050, fundamentally altering the global religious balance that has existed for centuries ^[6].

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself appears neutral and factual, seeking objective demographic information without apparent bias. However, the framing could potentially be used to support various political narratives:

• Political organizations and immigration policy advocates could benefit from emphasizing these statistics to either promote or oppose immigration policies, particularly given the significant growth projections for Western regions like North America and Europe ^{[3] [7]}.
• Religious institutions and demographic researchers like the Pew Research Center benefit from the attention and funding that comes with producing widely-cited demographic studies on sensitive religious topics ^{[1] [2] [3]}.
• The question's timing and context could be influenced by contemporary political debates about multiculturalism, immigration, and religious accommodation, where demographic projections often become weaponized by various political factions.

The analyses consistently cite Pew Research Center as the primary source, which while reputable, represents a single institutional perspective on these demographic trends. The lack of alternative methodological approaches or competing demographic models in the provided analyses could limit the comprehensiveness of the assessment.