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What was the estimated Muslim population of the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro in 2025?
Executive Summary
The available materials do not provide a single authoritative 2025 headcount for Muslims in the New York–Newark–Jersey City metropolitan area; instead they present a consistent range between roughly 400,000 and 800,000 people, with multiple methods clustering around the 400k–770k band. Recent 2025 commentary and retrospective analyses emphasize the region’s large Muslim presence within New York and New Jersey states, but they stop short of a single definitive metro estimate and note important methodological gaps in U.S. religious counting [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims say and why they conflict
The set of source summaries advances three core claims: New York State houses the largest state Muslim population (about 724,000) and New Jersey also has a large Muslim population (about 321,652), but none of the pieces gives a single, definitive 2025 metro tally [1] [4]. A 2014 multi-source synthesis offered earlier metro estimates spanning 400,000 to 770,777 based on survey self-identification, PEW extrapolation, and mosque counts — disparities that persist because each method captures different slices of religious identity and observance [3]. Contemporary commentators in 2025 repeat the core point that Muslims are a substantial urban constituency in New York City and the broader metro area while acknowledging the federal government’s long-standing refusal to collect religious-affiliation data, which perpetuates uncertainty [5] [2].
2. How analysts derived the divergent numbers
The three principal estimation approaches explain why numbers diverge. Telephone and household surveys such as the American Values Atlas and the PEW Religious Landscape translate percentage self-identification into headcounts and yielded estimates around 2–3% of the metro population, producing figures near 402,000–603,000 in older studies [3]. A separate strategy extrapolated from a mosque census and community records to produce a larger figure near 770,777, arguing that mosque attendance and organizational counts catch people missed by surveys [3]. State-level tallies that assign 724,475 for New York State and 321,652 for New Jersey provide context but cannot be cleanly aggregated into a metro figure without resident-location breakdowns [1] [4].
3. What the most recent 2025 sources add and their limits
Recent 2025 articles reiterate the large Muslim presence and underscore demographic shifts — in some pieces claiming New York City’s Muslim population may now outnumber Jews — but they do not supply new, rigorous metro headcounts [5]. A 2025 profile of American Muslims provides updated national context (estimates ranging from about three million to 4.5 million depending on method) and confirms that New York State remains a top state in Muslim population, yet it stops short of metro-specific enumeration [2]. A 2025 list of state totals replicates older state-level estimates and reiterates New York at ~724k and New Jersey at ~321k, but acknowledges these figures are drawn from secondary surveys and extrapolations rather than census religion questions [1] [4].
4. A defensible 2025 metro range and best-practice midpoint
Synthesizing the methodologies and dates, the defensible 2025 range for the New York–Newark–Jersey City metro Muslim population remains approximately 400,000 to 770,000. The lower bound reflects conservative survey-based extrapolations (American Values Atlas and PEW-style percentages applied to metro population), while the upper bound follows mosque-extrapolation approaches that include regular worshippers and community networks [3]. A cautious best-practice midpoint — acknowledging likely undercounting in surveys and potential over-inclusion in organizational tallies — would place a working estimate near 550,000–600,000 people in 2025, a figure consistent with the cluster of published ranges and state-level context without asserting false precision [3] [1].
5. Why uncertainty persists and what to watch for
Uncertainty is structural: the U.S. Census does not collect religion, phone and online surveys undercount nonrespondents and recent immigrants, mosque counts miss non-attenders, and state-to-metro apportionment introduces geographic error. Analysts explicitly caution that each method has biases — survey nonresponse, definitional differences (religion vs. ethnicity vs. community participation), and dated baselines from 2014–2017 studies that may not capture migration since then [2] [3]. Future clarity would come from targeted local surveys, improved municipal demographic work, or academic projects combining administrative records, school-language data, and faith-community counts; absent that, reputable reporting should continue to present a range rather than a single number [2] [5].
6. Bottom line and how to quote these numbers responsibly
Do not cite a single precise 2025 number as authoritative. The best-supported public position is that the New York–Newark–Jersey City metro contained several hundred thousand Muslim residents in 2025 — likely between 400,000 and 770,000, with a pragmatic midpoint near 550,000–600,000 — and that this estimate rests on combining survey self-identification, mosque-based extrapolations, and state-level tallies that each carry distinct biases. Reporters and researchers should present the range, the methods behind it, and the data gaps rather than a solitary figure; that is the most accurate reflection of the evidence assembled in these sources [3] [1] [2].