Number of muslims in france
Executive summary
Current estimates of France’s Muslim population cluster between about 5–7 million people (roughly 8–10% of the French population) depending on the source and methodology used, while some polling-based studies and institutional summaries report a ~10% share of those surveyed or aged subgroups [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]. No single official census figure exists because French law and practice generally prohibit collecting religion in national statistics, forcing reliance on surveys, demographic modelling and institutional estimates that yield a range rather than a point number [7] [8].
1. Current estimates: headline numbers and range
Major publicly-cited figures put the Muslim population in France at about 5.7 million (an 8.8% estimate cited for mid-2016) up to roughly 6–7 million in more recent summaries and projections—equating to roughly 8–10% of the national population—while some institutional summaries and INSEE-derived reporting indicate about 10% for certain age groups or samples [1] [2] [3] [9] [5] [4] [6].
2. Why sources give different answers: methods matter
Differences arise because sources use different tools—Pew-style demographic projections and mid-decade estimates, media and think‑tank polling, surveys of self-declared religion (often limited to certain age ranges), and modelling that mixes migration scenarios and fertility assumptions—so a “5.7 million (8.8%)” figure from a 2016-based study coexists with later estimates of 6–7 million or percentage estimates near 10% depending on the denominator and year used [1] [10] [2] [9] [5].
3. What reputable French institutions report and what they say
French statistical and research bodies note that Islam is the country’s second-largest religion and that about 10% of respondents in some INSEE/related surveys identify as Muslim, but they caution that official religious counts are not undertaken and that estimates therefore rely on targeted surveys such as those by INSEE or Institut Montaigne combined with polling [6] [5] [7]. Think tanks and demographic summaries such as the Robert Schuman Foundation also list Muslims at roughly 10% of the population in recent overviews [4].
4. Political framing, alarmist claims and alternate narratives
Some outlets and advocacy organizations push higher or lower figures to support policy arguments: alarmist pieces stressing rapid growth or radicalization cite rising percentages and interpretive reports (for example claims of 7–10% or faster increase) while older or conservative media sometimes cite lower, more cautious counts; several sources explicitly warn that differing agendas and methods drive the spread of divergent statistics [11] [12] [8]. The Institut Montaigne and IFOP emphasize the methodological gap created by laïcité and advocate careful survey work to avoid both exaggeration and undercounting [7].
5. What is not settled and the practical conclusion
Because France does not compile an official religion-based census, the best-supported conclusion from the available reporting is a range: roughly 5–7 million Muslims in absolute terms, or about 8–10% of the population depending on the year and method; a frequent institutional shorthand is “about 10%” in recent surveys and summaries for certain samples [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]. Any claim outside this band should be treated with scrutiny and checked for the study year, population base (age-limited or full population), and whether it relies on projection scenarios versus contemporaneous survey data [10] [7].