Number of undocumented immigrants in Minnesota
Executive summary
Estimates of Minnesota’s undocumented (unauthorized) population vary widely because researchers use different sources and adjustments; recent, widely cited work from the Pew Research Center estimates about 130,000 unauthorized immigrants in Minnesota as of 2023 [1], while other reputable analyses and local organizations report figures ranging roughly from 80,000 to 95,000 [2] [3], reflecting methodological and timing differences [4].
1. The headline: Pew’s 2023 estimate — about 130,000
The most recent figure cited in mainstream reporting comes from a Pew Research Center analysis that estimates roughly 130,000 unauthorized immigrants lived in Minnesota in 2023, equal to about 2.2% of the state population, and marking a notable rise from earlier years [1]; that report also notes a sharp national increase in unauthorized arrivals between 2019 and 2023 and that in Minnesota about 40% of the unauthorized population had lived in the U.S. five years or less [1].
2. Alternative, credible lower estimates: 80,000–95,000
Other reputable sources give lower numbers: a Minnesota Budget Project analysis cites an estimate of about 95,000 undocumented people in Minnesota [3], while commentary in the Star Tribune has referenced a figure around 80,000 [2]; older Pew-style ranges and academic summaries have placed the state’s unauthorized population between about 55,000 and 85,000, showing how estimates shift over time and by method [5].
3. Why the numbers don’t line up — data, definitions and adjustments
Differences stem in large part from methodology: some projects (like Migration Policy Institute’s profiles) impute unauthorized status using pooled American Community Survey and SIPP data and then weight to national totals, a process that involves assumptions and adjustments to account for undercounts [4], while other tools (such as the Center for Migration Studies augmentation of ACS microdata) explicitly adjust for undercount and privacy procedures that can affect state-level totals [6]; media reporting and social posts sometimes round differently or conflate foreign‑born totals with unauthorized estimates, further muddying comparisons [7].
4. Context: unauthorized population as part of Minnesota’s immigrant population
Putting the unauthorized numbers in context helps: Minnesota has roughly half a million foreign‑born residents overall according to local data sources [8], and some analyses note that unauthorized immigrants represent a minority share of the state’s immigrant community — Pew’s reporting indicates unauthorized people constituted about one-quarter of Minnesota’s immigrant population in the recent estimate, underscoring that most immigrants in the state have legal status [1].
5. What can reasonably be reported as the “number” today
A defensible approach is to report a range while identifying the leading recent estimate: contemporary, reputable estimates place Minnesota’s undocumented population roughly between 80,000 and 130,000, with Pew’s 2023 analysis at the upper end (about 130,000) and credible local studies and prior research clustering in the 80,000–95,000 band [1] [3] [2] [5]. It is important to stress that no estimate is exact because the population is, by definition, partially hidden and subject to sampling variability, adjustments for undercounts, and differing definitions (for example whether people with DACA, TPS, humanitarian parole, or pending asylum are counted as “unauthorized”) — methodological notes in MPI and other data tools explain these choices [4] [6].
6. Takeaway for readers and policymakers
For reporting or policymaking, stating both the recent Pew figure (≈130,000 in 2023) and the lower local estimates (≈80,000–95,000) is the most transparent practice: it communicates the scale and the uncertainty, cites the sources and methods behind each number, and avoids the misleading impression of precision in a population that is difficult to measure [1] [3] [2] [4].