Approximately how many undocumented of working age are currently in the US as of June 2025
Executive summary
As of mid‑2025, authoritative estimates place the total unauthorized (undocumented) immigrant population in the United States in the low‑to‑mid‑teens of millions; applying the well‑documented age profile of that population implies roughly 10–11 million undocumented people of working age (about 18–64) as of June 2025, with an uncertainty range driven by divergent methods and recent population swings (roughly 9.5–11.5 million) [1] [2] [3]. These figures reflect competing estimates, rapid migration flows and partial measurement problems in 2024–2025 that make any single point estimate provisional [2] [3].
1. Total unauthorized population: the starting point
Most major research centers agree the unauthorized population grew to the low‑ to mid‑teens by 2023 and into 2024, with the Migration Policy Institute and Pew reporting mid‑2023 totals around 13.7–14 million as benchmarks for later calculations [1] [2]. Analysts and government summaries show very large inflows in 2023–2024 (including paroles and releases) and then evidence of a slowdown and possible drop in the first half of 2025, so the total count for June 2025 is best read as close to those 2023 highs but with plausible declines up to about one million by June 2025 in some household‑survey based series [2] [4].
2. Why working‑age matters — and how to derive it
“Working age” for labor‑market purposes is typically treated as adults aged roughly 18–64; researchers emphasize that the bulk of the unauthorized population is of prime working age because migration is heavily labor‑driven and because family‑formation patterns concentrate adults in those cohorts [1] [5]. Given an overall unauthorized population near 13.7–14.0 million (mid‑2023 anchor) and the common demographic profile documented by Migration Policy and labor‑market researchers, applying a working‑age share in the neighborhood of 75–85 percent produces a straightforward working‑age estimate on the order of about 10–11.5 million people [1] [5].
3. Measurement disputes and the size of the range
Estimates diverge because methods vary: survey‑residual techniques, CPS household survey trends, administrative counts of paroles/releases, and newer model adjustments each produce different totals [3] [2]. For example, Pew’s synthesis and CPS trend analysis suggest mid‑2025 totals may be somewhat lower than early‑2024 highs (a decline possibly approaching 1 million by June 2025), while advocacy and research groups offer higher and lower totals depending on assumptions about re‑emigration, undercount and administrative releases [2] [6] [7]. Factoring these method differences yields the working‑age undocumented range of roughly 9.5 million at the low end to about 11.5 million at the high end for June 2025 [2] [1] [3].
4. What this means and caveats for interpretation
Policy debates treat the working‑age unauthorized population as the crucial quantity for labor markets, tax receipts and enforcement estimates, but analysts warn that monthly CPS controls, parole and release policies, and removals through mid‑2025 introduce substantial short‑term volatility and uncertainty into any number [2] [8] [3]. The Congressional Budget Office and other government summaries document tens of thousands of removals and hundreds of thousands of releases in the first half of 2025, changes that move the stock only incrementally relative to the multi‑million total but that complicate trend interpretation [8] [2]. In short: the best, evidence‑based answer for June 2025 is a working‑age undocumented population of roughly 10–11 million, with an honest uncertainty band of about 9.5–11.5 million depending on which methodology and short‑term adjustments are used [1] [2] [3].