What is the correlation between the number of sexual partners an individual has and the likelihood they will get married? Separate by gender
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Executive summary
Recent, peer-reviewed analyses report a modest negative correlation between having more non‑marital sex partners and the probability that a person — particularly women in cross‑sectional U.S. surveys — will be married by the time of interview, but longitudinal work shows that effect is largely "seasonal" (linked to recent partners rather than lifetime counts); evidence for men is weaker and mixed, and assessments of later marital stability or divorce show few clear gender differences [1] [2] [3].
1. What the major surveys find about marriage likelihood by partner count
Cross‑sectional analysis of multiple waves of the National Survey of Family Growth finds that American women who report more non‑marital sex partners are less likely to be married at the time of the survey, with virgins also showing lower marriage prevalence in modern cohorts — a pattern flagged by the authors as potentially misleading because of retrospective measures and cohort shifts [1] [2] [4].
2. What longitudinal data add: recent partners versus lifetime partners
Seventeen waves from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort extend through 2015 and indicate the negative association is temporary: recent non‑marital partners predict lower odds of marrying in the short term, but lifetime counts of non‑marital partners do not robustly predict whether someone ever marries, suggesting timing and life‑course sequencing matter more than a simple lifetime tally [1] [2].
3. Gender differences — mostly a story of nuance, not a simple split
While early cross‑sectional results emphasize a stronger inverse correlation for women (a pattern some interpret through a gendered sexual double standard), longitudinal and divorce‑focused studies report little consistent gender gap: re‑examinations of premarital sex and divorce find no evidence of gender differences in how premarital sex relates to divorce risk, and some mixed‑gender cohort analyses show similar patterns for men and women when timing is considered [1] [5] [3].
4. Marriage quality and divorce: more partners tied to lower stability, but causality contested
Several reports — including BYU’s Wheatley Institute brief and related summaries — find that, among married respondents, higher lifetime partner counts correlate with lower self‑reported marital stability and sexual satisfaction for both men and women (for example, each additional partner was associated with a few percentage points lower probability of “high” stability or satisfaction) [6] [7] [8]. Critics and scholars caution these associations may be spurious, reflecting underlying traits (e.g., selection effects, childhood trauma, education or religiosity) rather than a direct causal effect of partner count [9] [1].
5. Methodological limits and competing explanations
All sources underscore major limitations: many analyses rely on retrospective, cross‑sectional self‑reports that conflate age, cohort, and life‑stage; partner counts are imperfect proxies for attitudes or social context; and selection bias (people predisposed to marrying or staying single differ in many ways) complicates causal claims — the authors of the primary studies themselves note these constraints and call certain broad causal narratives into question [1] [2] [9].
6. Hidden agendas and interpretive frames in reporting
Some public summaries (e.g., institutional press releases and advocacy outlets) frame findings as moral prescriptions — calling sexual restraint a route to “strong marriages” — while academic re‑analyses and neutral briefs stress complexity and cohort change; that divergence suggests ideological or institutional motives can shape headlines even when the underlying empirical picture is qualified [6] [7] [9].
7. Bottom line for readers seeking a crisp answer
There is a measurable correlation in some datasets between having more recent non‑marital sexual partners and lower short‑term odds of marrying, and higher lifetime partner counts correlate with lower reported marital stability in several surveys; however, longitudinal evidence indicates lifetime partner counts do not necessarily predict eventual marriage, gender differences are inconsistently observed, and causality remains unproven — the most honest summary is that partner count matters modestly in certain contexts, but is far from a determining factor for marriage or marital outcomes [1] [2] [5] [6] [3] [9].