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How has SNAP participation changed since 2020?
Executive Summary
SNAP participation surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession and emergency policy expansions, peaking around roughly 43 million monthly recipients in late 2020, then settled to an average of about 41–42 million per month in 2024–mid‑2025 as pandemic-era supports wound down. Recent USDA reporting shows a modest decline from that peak with both year‑to‑year stability in the low‑40s and shorter‑term declines (about 1.5 million fewer recipients between Oct 2024 and May 2025), while state and demographic patterns vary widely and policy changes continue to influence enrollment [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The big jump in 2020 that reshaped the SNAP caseload
SNAP’s caseload rose sharply in 2020 as the pandemic triggered economic collapse and emergency program changes, with monthly recipients increasing from roughly 37.2 million in March 2020 to about 43 million by September 2020, a shift driven by both higher need and emergency administrative flexibilities that expanded and simplified access. That surge is documented in retrospective analyses of 2020 enrollment trends and serves as the baseline for later comparisons; it reflects both the macroeconomic shock of the pandemic and temporary federal measures such as emergency allotments that raised benefit levels and eased recertification. The 2020 spike is the primary driver of higher average caseloads in subsequent fiscal years and is central to understanding why 2024–2025 levels remain above pre‑pandemic counts [1].
2. Where SNAP settled: the low‑40s average in 2024–mid‑2025
After the 2020 peak, SNAP participation settled to an average of about 41.7 million beneficiaries per month in FY2024, representing roughly 12–12.5% of the U.S. population in that fiscal year. Multiple agency and research summaries concur that the program served around 41–42 million people monthly in 2024 and into mid‑2025, with federal spending in FY2024 near $99.8 billion and the program continuing to serve disproportionately many children, older adults, and people with disabilities. This near‑steady level signals that while emergency expansions ended, elevated need persisted compared with pre‑pandemic levels, reflecting slower recovery in some households and the long‑tail effects of economic and policy shifts during 2020–2021 [5] [6] [2].
3. Short‑term downward movement: the 2024–2025 decrease
USDA administrative counts and media analyses identify a short‑term decline of about 1.5 million SNAP recipients between October 2024 and May 2025, indicating that caseloads have not been strictly monotonic and can fall as eligibility rules, economic conditions, or administrative actions change. At the same time, annual snapshots show higher counts in Jan 2025 versus Jan 2020 — for example, a reported rise from 37.1 million in January 2020 to 42.4 million in January 2025 — which underscores the difference between longer‑term elevated participation since 2020 and shorter‑term monthly declines tied to policy rollbacks, seasonal employment shifts, or case processing [4] [6].
4. State‑level and demographic variation that masks national averages
National averages obscure substantial state and demographic variation: some states saw participation grow or remain elevated relative to 2020 while others recorded sharper declines as local economies recovered or as states enforced existing work‑requirement rules and recertification. The share of participants who are children, seniors, or disabled is large in aggregate, and income‑poverty correlations are strong — most SNAP households have incomes under the poverty line — meaning changes in benefits or eligibility disproportionately affect these groups. Analysts warn that national monthly averages can therefore understate how local policy changes or administrative backlogs shift who receives benefits [2] [1].
5. Policy changes, counting conventions, and why trends can be misleading
Interpreting trends requires attention to policy timing and counting rules: pandemic emergency allotments, temporary eligibility relaxations, and later reinstatements of normal work and verification rules changed both who was eligible and how cases were counted. Congressional funding uncertainty and administrative directives (including rule changes discussed for late 2025) can cause abrupt enrollment shifts or reporting artifacts. As a result, a year‑to‑year comparison (e.g., 2020 to 2024) captures the pandemic’s lasting effect on caseload levels, while month‑to‑month changes (e.g., Oct 2024–May 2025) often reflect policy wind‑down, recertification cycles, and economic churn — all of which must be considered when assessing whether SNAP is “increasing” or “decreasing” [1] [7] [4].
6. Bottom line: higher than pre‑pandemic, but not uniformly rising
The clearest, well‑documented fact is that SNAP participation is higher now than in early 2020, largely because of the large pandemic‑era increase; however, participation has not continued a simple upward trajectory and shows both stability in the low‑40‑million range and short‑term declines tied to policy and administrative changes. Policymakers and reporters comparing years need to use consistent measures (monthly averages, fiscal‑year averages, or point‑in‑time counts) and account for policy-driven enrollment mechanics to avoid misleading conclusions about whether SNAP is expanding or contracting [1] [2] [4].