How do welfare enrollment trends for Somali immigrants compare to other immigrant groups in Minnesota over 2015–2024?
Executive summary
Available public reporting and state data portals show Minnesota has the nation’s largest Somali community (roughly 80–107,000 people in recent reporting) and that Minnesota tracks immigrant enrollment in specific welfare programs (MFIP, Food Support, Refugee Cash Assistance) by group — but none of the provided sources supply a clear, year‑by‑year comparison of Somali welfare enrollment versus other immigrant groups for 2015–2024 (available sources do not provide the requested trend table) [1] [2] [3].
1. Minnesota’s Somali population: large, concentrated and well‑documented
Minnesota hosts the largest Somali population in the U.S., with recent local reporting giving figures in the neighborhood of about 80,000 to 107,000 Somali‑descent residents concentrated in the Twin Cities metro [4] [3]. National stories repeatedly note Somalis were attracted to Minnesota in part because of available social services and refugee resettlement infrastructure [5] [4].
2. Welfare program data exist — but are program‑specific, not a single “welfare” series
State and independent data portals indicate Minnesota collects and publishes enrollment and outcome measures for particular programs — e.g., MFIP (Minnesota Family Investment Program), Food Support (SNAP), Diversionary Work Program, and Refugee Cash Assistance — and some of these reports break out select immigrant groups, including Somali and Hmong, for county‑level MFIP metrics [2]. That means comparisons are possible in principle, but must be built from multiple program datasets rather than from a single statewide “welfare enrollment” number [2].
3. No sourced, continuous 2015–2024 Somali vs. other‑group welfare trends in the results
The set of documents and news stories provided discuss Somali population size, refugee arrivals, program eligibility (e.g., Refugee Cash Assistance rules), and that Minnesota tracks program participation by immigrant group — but none of the sources present a consolidated, year‑by‑year trend from 2015 through 2024 comparing Somali enrollment to other immigrant groups across all welfare programs (available sources do not supply a 2015–2024 comparative time series) [2] [6].
4. Where to look (and why researchers can construct comparisons)
MN Compass and the Minnesota Department of Human Services publish program‑level enrollment and performance reports and have “By immigrant group” datasets that include MFIP participation and Food Support citizenship status; MN Compass explicitly lists Somali as a selectable immigrant group for some measures [7] [2]. The Minnesota DHS Refugee Assistance program description explains eligibility categories (RCA, RSS, ES) that affect refugee use of cash and employment services, which matters when comparing refugee‑heavy groups like Somalis to other immigrant populations [6] [2].
5. Contextual dynamics that affect enrollment trends (what raw counts won’t show)
Three structural factors shape any comparison and can produce misleading headline numbers if omitted: eligibility differences — refugees, TPS holders, naturalized citizens and undocumented immigrants face different access to federal and state programs [6] [8]; shifting arrival flows — refugee resettlement spikes (Minnesota resettled nearly 3,000 refugees in 2024) change the composition of newcomers who may use initial assistance [9]; and long‑term integration — research and state reports stress immigrant economic contributions and rising workforce participation over time, meaning reliance rates typically decline as groups settle [10] [7].
6. Political and media attention has distorted perceptions of program use
Recent national political attacks and reporting about alleged welfare fraud in Minnesota have focused on Somali residents, elevating the issue beyond the data: outlets from TIME to NPR and AP chronicle both the history of Somali settlement and the partisan spotlight on alleged fraud and federal policy moves [5] [4] [11]. Editorial and advocacy pieces advance competing narratives — from calls that social programs attracted Somali settlement [5] to more polemical pieces framing fraud as endemic to immigrant policy [12]. Those divergent framings require looking back to source data rather than accepting broad claims.
7. What a transparent comparison would require
A defensible 2015–2024 comparison needs: yearly enrollment counts by program (MFIP, Food Support, RCA, Medicaid where available) disaggregated by country/ethnicity (Somali, Hmong, Mexican, etc.); denominators (population or cohort size) so participation rates are comparable; notes on immigration status and eligibility; and caveats about program rule changes and resettlement flows [2] [6] [9]. The current sources confirm some program disaggregation exists but do not deliver that assembled dataset [2].
8. Bottom line for your question
State and nonprofit data systems allow the exact comparison you seek — Minnesota publishes program‑level immigrant breakdowns and tracks refugee arrivals — but the sources provided do not contain the compiled 2015–2024 Somali‑vs‑other‑groups welfare trend. To answer your question definitively, obtain year‑by‑year MFIP/Food Support/RCA enrollment files from Minnesota DHS and MN Compass’s “By immigrant group” tables and calculate participation rates using annual population denominators [2] [7] [6].