Which US states have the highest and lowest welfare participation rates among Somali immigrants?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
Public reporting centers Minnesota as the state with the highest reported welfare participation among Somali immigrant households: the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) figure widely cited by outlets says 81% of Somali immigrant households in Minnesota use “some form of welfare,” and 89% of Somali households with children in Minnesota use some form of welfare (reported in FactCheck and replicated in other outlets) [1] [2]. Available sources do not provide a comprehensive comparison listing which U.S. states have the absolute lowest Somali welfare-participation rates; most reporting focuses on Minnesota and national population distributions [3] [1].
1. Minnesota dominates the coverage — here’s why
News outlets, think tanks and commentators have repeatedly highlighted Minnesota because it hosts the nation’s largest Somali community and because recent reporting and political attacks centered on welfare use and fraud focus on that state; CIS reported 81% of Somali immigrant households in Minnesota use some form of welfare, rising to 89% for households with children, and FactCheck documented those CIS figures and the attention they drew after presidential comments [1] [2]. Minnesota’s large Somali population — cited as roughly 80,000–108,000 in different sources and census summaries — makes any percentage look consequential to political and media debates [1] [4].
2. What “welfare” means in these reports — definitions matter
The high percentages reported are not limited to cash assistance; CIS’s published metric, as reported by FactCheck, counts “some form of welfare” broadly — including SNAP, Medicaid and other state or federal programs — and CIS historically includes programs such as subsidized housing, WIC and refundable EITC in its welfare measures, while ACS data have limits [1] [5]. That breadth inflates participation compared with narrower measures like cash-only welfare or TANF; the CIS report itself indicates differing program-level rates, for example a lower figure for cash welfare in Minnesota [1].
3. Sampling and interpretation caveats cited by fact-checkers
FactCheck and other reporters noted limitations: survey sampling error and differing definitions mean the precise percentage could vary; FactCheck reports that CIS’s broader estimate could be subject to sampling margins and that earlier public figures used in political statements lacked documentation [1]. Multiple outlets updated or contextualized claims after CIS published its analysis, underscoring that headline percentages require methodological scrutiny [1].
4. Missing — state-by-state low-end comparisons
None of the materials provided include a state-by-state ranking showing which states have the lowest Somali welfare-participation rates. TheWorldData and census summaries list major Somali population centers beyond Minnesota (Columbus, Seattle-Tacoma, Maine, San Diego) but do not supply comparative welfare-participation rates by state [3]. Therefore, available sources do not mention a definitive “lowest” state for Somali welfare participation [3].
5. Political context and competing narratives in the coverage
Reporting shows sharply divergent uses of the numbers: conservative commentators and some opinion pieces frame the statistics as evidence of dependency or fraud concentrated among Somalis in Minnesota, connecting them to broader political attacks; think tanks and commentators such as AEI emphasize alleged fraud and political failure in Minnesota’s systems [6] [7]. At the same time, neutral fact-checking outlets caution about methodological overreach and the difference between program participation and criminality, and public-interest outlets report community concerns about targeting and enforcement actions [1] [8].
6. What can responsibly be concluded from current reporting
Based on the available reporting, Minnesota is the state most cited for high Somali welfare participation, with CIS’s 81% overall and 89% for households with children frequently referenced [1] [2]. Available sources do not provide comparable, reliable low-end state figures or a comprehensive national ranking, so claims about which state has the “lowest” Somali welfare participation are not supported by the materials provided [3] [1].
7. How to get a complete answer — recommended next steps
To determine highest and lowest welfare participation reliably, one needs access to the underlying American Community Survey microdata or state administrative data and a clear, consistent definition of “welfare” by program. None of the supplied articles provide that state-by-state dataset; pursuing ACS tables, CIS methodology notes, or state human services administrative reports would be the next step — available sources do not include those raw cross-state comparisons here [5] [1] [3].
Limitations: this piece relies only on the supplied documents; methodological detail and full state-by-state comparisons are not present in those sources and therefore cannot be asserted beyond what they report [1] [3].