How many Somalis live in Minnesota today compared to 2005 and 2015?
Executive summary
Estimates of Minnesota’s Somali population vary widely across sources: recent 2023–2025 estimates cluster around roughly 61,000–64,000 people (e.g., World Population Review and Axios citing ~61,000 and 64,354) while earlier mid‑decade estimates put the count near 57,000 in 2015 (U.S. ACS/Wikipedia) and some community or state publications reported much higher or broader ranges—57,000–87,853 in the 2008–2015 era and longstanding estimates as high as 70,000–87,000 in later summaries [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. Numbers today: recent snapshots and disagreement
Multiple recent data aggregators and news outlets report roughly 61,000–64,000 Somalis living in Minnesota: World Population Review lists 64,354 (state share 1.12%) and Axios/coverage cites “about 61,000” [1] [5]. Other 2025‑era compilations using ACS estimates give totals around 61,353 or 63,569 in county/city breakdowns [6] [7] [8]. These contemporary figures are broadly consistent with one another but not identical; the difference reflects varying methods and years of underlying American Community Survey (ACS) or private‑data updates [6] [1].
2. The 2015 baseline: the commonly cited ACS estimate
The U.S. ACS and widely cited summaries place the 2015 Somali‑ancestry population in Minnesota at about 57,000—this figure appears in the Somali Americans overview and in state historical accounts [2] [3]. Some local analyses and commentators reported higher ACS‑derived or extrapolated numbers in 2015—one piece cited an ACS estimate of 74,000 for that year—illustrating disagreement even within media and local sources [9].
3. Going back to 2005: sparse, lower counts and survey growth
Early‑2000s counts were much smaller. Academic and health‑research summaries note roughly 10,000 Somalis in Minnesota in 2001 and roughly 21,000 by the 2011–13 ACS window, reflecting rapid growth through the 2000s [10]. Specific 2005 point estimates are not consistently reported in the provided sources; available reporting documents growth across the decade but does not provide a single authoritative 2005 headcount [10] [3]. Therefore, a precise 2005 number is not found in current reporting.
4. Why the estimates diverge: methodology, definitions and migration flows
Sources explicitly warn that the true number is “difficult to determine” and give wide ranges—from about 30,000 to 100,000—because of methodological differences: some counts use “Somali ancestry,” others count Somalia‑born residents, and surveys like the ACS undercount immigrant communities. Secondary migration inside the U.S., ongoing refugee arrivals (13,582 Somali refugees recorded 2005–2018 by MN DHS), natural increase (births), and voluntary return to Somalia further complicate trends [11] [3] [12]. The Minnesota Demographer’s mid‑2010s estimate range (40,200–52,400) and community estimates pushing toward 80,000 highlight the variation caused by definitional choices and undercounting [11] [3].
5. Political and journalistic context that shapes numbers
Numbers are politically salient. News outlets and political actors cite population figures in coverage of immigration debates; for example, Axios and other outlets referenced the ~61,000 figure while national commentary has amplified higher community estimates [5] [12]. Community organizations and historical guides sometimes present larger counts, reflecting either broader definitions (including second‑generation and Somali‑ancestry individuals) or local knowledge of populations missed by surveys [4] [13].
6. What a careful reader should conclude
Available sources converge on a clear pattern: Minnesota’s Somali population grew substantially from the early 2000s into the 2010s and remains the largest Somali community in the U.S. Contemporary estimates most often cited in 2023–2025 fall around 61,000–64,000, 2015 ACS‑style estimates center near 57,000, and precise 2005 counts are not consistently reported in the reviewed sources [5] [2] [10]. The remaining uncertainty stems from definitional choices, survey undercounts, secondary migration, and differing publication methods [3] [11].
Limitations: this summary relies only on the supplied sources and their reported figures; sources disagree and often note the same uncertainty about exact counts [3] [11]. For a definitive time‑series, consult Minnesota State Demographic Center or the detailed ACS microdata and DHS refugee arrival records directly—available sources here do not supply a single validated 2005 headcount [10] [12].