What is the estimated total Somali population in Minnesota in 2025?

1. Why published estimates diverge so widely: ancestry vs. birthplace vs. survey methods

Different outlets are reporting substantially different totals because they draw on different ACS metrics and secondary analyses: TV and local reporting that quote the ACS “ancestry” estimate place Somalis in Minnesota at roughly 107,000 people (a figure repeated by KTTC and Fox9 as the larger, ancestry-based ACS number) ^[1][4], while data products that tally residents by country-of-birth or use alternate ACS tabulations arrive at much smaller totals—around 61,000 to 64,000 in recent releases (Neilsberg and WorldPopulationReview citing ACS-derived or tabulated counts) ^[2][5].

2. The authoritative-but-complex source: the American Community Survey’s role

Most contemporary media and analysts rely on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), but the ACS publishes multiple, methodologically different estimates—ancestry, language spoken at home, and place of birth—each capturing different parts of the Somali diaspora; outlets that quote the “ancestry” estimate report about 107,000 Somalis statewide, whereas other ACS-derived tabulations focused on birthplace or more restrictive definitions produce counts near 61,000–64,000 ^[1][2][4].

3. Independent analyses and advocacy groups give middle-range estimates

Think-tank and advocacy reporting often lands between those poles: the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) reported “over 75,000” people of Somali ancestry in Minnesota in 2024, reflecting the reality that secondary migration, births, and naturalizations have expanded the community beyond Somalia-born residents but that survey margins of error and definitional choices matter ^[3].

4. Ground-level snapshots: Twin Cities concentration and citizenship trends

Regardless of the statewide total chosen, multiple sources agree that the Twin Cities metro contains the lion’s share of Minnesota’s Somali population—with estimates of roughly 83,000–84,000 Somali-descent residents concentrated in Minneapolis–Saint Paul reported by local and national outlets—and that a substantial and growing portion of that community is U.S.-born or naturalized, complicating simple “immigrant” headcounts ^[4][6].

5. Best single-number answer and the honest caveat

If a single, defensible 2025 estimate is required and one accepts the Census Bureau’s ancestry metric as the broadest, most inclusive measure cited by statewide reporting, the estimated total Somali population in Minnesota is approximately 107,000 people (the figure used by KTTC and Fox9 and attributed to the ACS) ^[1][4]. However, analysts should treat that number alongside the competing ACS-derived totals near 61,000–64,000 and intermediate estimates around 75,000–84,000; the true count depends on whether the interest is ancestry, place-of-birth, or current self-identification—each approach is defensible but yields different answers ^[2][3][6].

6. What this variation means for policy and discourse

The gap between 61,000 and 107,000 is not just technical: it shapes policy debates about social services, voting power, and immigration enforcement; some political actors emphasize higher ancestry figures to argue for political influence, while others use narrower birthplace counts to argue for smaller immigrant populations—readers should note each source’s implicit agenda and the ACS’s sampling limitations when interpreting single-number headlines ^[1][5][3].

7. Final assessment

A cautious, evidence-grounded summary: using the Census Bureau’s widely cited ancestry measure, Minnesota’s Somali population in 2025 is best estimated at about 107,000 ^[1][4]; using place-of-birth or narrower ACS tabulations yields lower estimates in the 61,000–64,000 range ^[2][5]; independent analyses and reporting commonly reference midpoints around 75,000–84,000 ^[3][6]. The variance reflects methodological choices, and all of these figures appear across reputable local and national reporting.