What are city-level Somali population trends in Minneapolis–St. Paul and Columbus from 2010 to 2025?
Executive summary
City-level source estimates show Minneapolis and St. Paul each hosting substantial but smaller direct city populations of Somali residents in 2025 (Minneapolis ~19,870; St. Paul ~6,669) while Columbus appears to rival or exceed those single‑city counts (Columbus ~22,899), but metro‑level and state estimates differ widely and reporting uses different definitions and years, producing conflicting narratives about growth from 2010–2025 [1] [2] [3].
1. Overview: two competing pictures — city counts versus metro/state totals
Officially cited city‑level American Community Survey (ACS) based estimates compiled by data sites put Minneapolis at about 19,870 Somalis and St. Paul at about 6,669 in 2025, with Columbus estimated at roughly 22,899 Somali residents — a grouping that would make Columbus the largest single‑city Somali population in those compilations [1] [2]. By contrast, reporting that aggregates broader geographies produces much larger figures for the Twin Cities metro and for Minnesota overall: PBS and other outlets report the Minneapolis–St. Paul area as home to roughly 84,000 people of Somali descent in 2024 and place Minnesota among the states with the largest Somali populations [3] [4]. These divergent frames — city proper versus metropolitan or state totals — are the central reason apparent “growth” lines look different depending on the source [1] [3].
2. Trend signal: steady growth since 2010 with important inflection points
Multiple sources trace a strong upward trajectory through the 2010s: secondary migration and new arrivals continued to boost Minnesota’s Somali community after 2010, with documented secondary arrivals to Minnesota between 2010 and 2016 numbering 3,740 and many foreign‑born Somalis entering the U.S. in 2010 or later according to Census summaries cited in recent reporting [5] [3]. Some analyses describe a population that “tripled by 2010” relative to the 1990s and then “continued to grow” through the 2010s and into the early 2020s, producing sizeable communities concentrated in Cedar‑Riverside and other Minneapolis neighborhoods [6] [7].
3. City‑level picture, 2010 → 2025: modest city cores, expanding metro footprint
When focusing strictly on city limits, Minneapolis and St. Paul’s Somali populations in 2025 (roughly 19,870 and 6,669 respectively) indicate growth but not the massive single‑city totals some metro‑level reporting implies; Neilsberg’s 2025 compilation uses ACS estimates at the city level to produce those counts [1]. Columbus’s city estimate of about 22,899 in the same ACS‑based compilations makes it the largest single city by that measure, illustrating that much of the Twin Cities Somali population is spread across suburbs and neighboring municipalities rather than concentrated entirely within Minneapolis or St. Paul city boundaries [2] [1].
4. Why numbers diverge: methodology, definitions, and timing
Discrepancies originate in methodology: ACS single‑year and multiyear estimates, proprietary aggregators, local demographers, and news outlets sometimes report “Somali ancestry,” “Somalia‑born,” or broader “people of Somali descent” across different geographies and years, producing totals that are not directly comparable [1] [3] [8]. Some sources emphasize foreign‑born counts (e.g., 2008–2012 estimates of Somalia‑born residents in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area), while later coverage highlights that a large share of Minnesota’s Somali population is U.S.‑born or naturalized, further complicating year‑to‑year comparisons [8] [3].
5. Bottom line and limits of available reporting
The consistent bottom line across sources is growth since 2010, driven by new arrivals, secondary migration, and natural increase, with Minneapolis and St. Paul forming an anchored but geographically dispersed Twin Cities Somali community and Columbus emerging as a comparable single‑city center by some ACS‑based counts [5] [1] [2]. Reporting conflicts — widely different totals for metro‑level versus city‑level counts, and varying estimates in 2024–2025 coverage — mean precise year‑by‑year city counts from 2010 to 2025 cannot be reconstructed from the provided sources alone without consulting underlying Census/ACS tables and the Minnesota state demographer for consistent series [3] [1] [5].