How have Somali population trends in Minnesota counties changed between 2010 and 2025?
Executive summary
Between 2010 and 2025 Minnesota’s Somali population remained concentrated in the Twin Cities metro and surrounding counties, expanding markedly in the 1990s–2000s and continuing to grow into the 2010s, but publicly cited totals for 2024–2025 vary widely across sources and highlight both continued urban concentration (Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka) and disagreement about absolute counts (roughly 60–107k depending on the source) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Historical surge through 2010 set the county pattern that persists
The Somali community in Minnesota increased rapidly before 2010—tripling by 2010 from earlier levels according to immigrant-focused reporting—and that earlier expansion established settlement patterns that have persisted into the 2010s and 2020s, with newcomers and secondary migrants concentrating in metropolitan counties where jobs, services and existing community networks were available [1] [5].
2. Metro counties remain the primary centers — Hennepin leads
Multiple county-level breakdowns show Hennepin County holding the largest Somali population by far, with Ramsey, Dakota and Anoka among the next-largest county concentrations; analyses drawing on American Community Survey estimates put Hennepin as the clear center of Minnesota’s Somali population [2] [6].
3. Secondary migration within the U.S. amplified county-level growth after 2010
Between 2010 and 2016 Minnesota documented thousands of secondary arrivals from other U.S. states—3,740 documented moves alone—who settled mainly in Hennepin and nearby counties, a migration pattern that reinforced county-level concentrations rather than dispersing the population into rural counties [5].
4. Estimates diverge sharply for 2024–2025 totals; trend interpretation depends on source
Contemporary sources do not agree on a single statewide total: a 2025 county-listing analysis using ACS-derived figures reports roughly 61,000 Somali residents in Minnesota with Hennepin containing ~28,000 [2], a population-ranking site reports about 64,354 [3], while a news roundup cites Census Bureau ACS numbers implying roughly 107,000 Somali-descent Minnesotans in 2024 [4]. These divergences matter for assessing growth rates since 2010 and reflect differing definitions (Somali-born vs. Somali ancestry vs. language spoken at home) and distinct estimation methods (ACS samples, secondary analyses, or combined ancestry measures) [2] [3] [4].
5. Demographic characteristics underpin county patterns: youth, languages, refugee settlements
State overviews emphasize that Minnesota has the nation’s largest Somali population and that Somali and other refugee communities are younger on average, more urban, and concentrated in counties that absorbed refugee resettlement and jobs—features that explain why county growth remained focused in urban and suburban precincts rather than distributed evenly statewide [6] [7].
6. What changed between 2010 and 2025: continued urban concentration, modest net statewide growth but uncertain magnitude
Synthesis of reporting shows a clear qualitative story: the county-level geography set by the 1990s–2010 wave persisted, with continued inflows (including secondary migration) keeping Somali populations largest in Twin Cities counties; quantitatively, however, the magnitude of statewide growth between 2010 and 2025 is uncertain in the provided reporting because sources use different base definitions and produce divergent totals (roughly 61k–64k in some ACS-derived lists versus a much larger ~107k figure in a separate Census-interpretive news report) [1] [2] [4].
7. Limits of available county data and why numbers diverge
Available public reporting combines ACS estimates, ancestry and language measures, and journalistic summaries, which yield different snapshots: ACS county estimates tend to report tens of thousands concentrated in a few counties [2], whereas national ancestry-language tabulations and broader Census-interpretations can inflate counts by including descendants and those identifying by ancestry [4] [7]. The provided materials do not supply a consistent county-by-county time series from 2010 to 2025, so precise numeric change per county cannot be reconstructed from these sources alone [2] [4].
8. Bottom line and caveats
The political and social narrative about Somalis in Minnesota often focuses on size and visibility, but the factual through-line supported by the reporting is straightforward: county-level concentration in the Twin Cities persisted from 2010 through the mid-2020s with ongoing secondary migration reinforcing Hennepin and neighboring counties as the primary centers; precise statewide and county change magnitudes depend on which dataset and definition are used, and the sources provided present conflicting totals [5] [2] [4].