How many people of Somali ancestry live in the twin cities metro area as of 2024-2025?
Executive summary
The best available 2024–2025 estimates cluster the Twin Cities Somali population around 80,000–84,000 people: multiple major news outlets cite roughly 84,000 Somalis in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area (Census American Community Survey–based reporting) while other outlets report slightly lower metro counts near 83,000 and community estimates vary up to ~107,000 for the state or metro depending on methodology [1] [2] [3] [4]. Precise totals differ because sources use different Census measures (ancestry vs. place of birth vs. ACS sampling) and community groups say undercounts are likely [3] [5].
1. How reporters are counting Somalis — two different Census measures drive different numbers
Media outlets reporting in late 2024–2025 rely chiefly on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey; many stories summarize that the Minneapolis–St. Paul area is home to about 84,000 people of Somali descent, a figure that recurs in AP, PBS, CNN and other outlets [1] [6] [7] [8]. Other outlets note alternative ACS-derived totals — for example, some ACS ancestry estimates produce statewide totals around 108,000 and metro shares of roughly 83,000–84,000 — underscoring that “Somali” can be measured as ancestry, foreign-born population, or self-reported place of birth [4] [3].
2. Why the range matters: ancestry vs. foreign-born vs. citizenship
Different counts capture different populations. When outlets quote “about 84,000” they refer to people of Somali descent in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area, which includes U.S.-born descendants as well as immigrants; separate ACS tallies show Minnesota having roughly 83,445–108,000 people of Somali ancestry depending on which dataset or question is used. Reporting also notes that most Somalis in Minnesota are U.S. citizens and that only a minority are non‑citizens in ACS estimates, which affects who might be counted as “at risk” in enforcement scenarios [2] [4].
3. Community estimates and undercounting concerns push some totals higher
Community groups, historical studies and watchdogs argue the Census undercounts immigrant groups who distrust government surveys. Local community estimates and some aggregators produce larger statewide figures (community estimates cited as high as ~80,000 in older reporting and methodological critiques that census numbers can miss people) and one local outlet noted the Census “contains two sets of estimates” that can raise metro totals used in some media pieces [5] [3] [9].
4. Recent reporting tied counts to policy and enforcement context
The attention on these population figures in 2024–2025 is driven by federal enforcement plans and political rhetoric; outlets emphasize the Minneapolis–St. Paul metro’s roughly 84,000-strong Somali community because it represents the largest Somali concentration in the U.S. and informs the potential scope and political consequences of any targeted operations [6] [10] [11].
5. Best single‑number answer and caveats
If you need a concise, media‑consistent figure for 2024–2025, say “about 84,000 Somalis in the Minneapolis–St. Paul (Twin Cities) metropolitan area,” which is the number most frequently cited by national outlets summarizing ACS results [1] [6] [7]. Note the caveats: other ACS estimates and community counts put statewide Somali ancestry between roughly 83,000 and 108,000 or higher, and methodology (ancestry vs. foreign‑born vs. sampling error) creates uncertainty [4] [3] [5].
6. Competing viewpoints and the implicit agendas behind the numbers
Journalists and demographers stress that ACS sampling has margins of error (not always quoted in brief news pieces), community advocates warn of undercounts that would raise figures, and political actors sometimes amplify higher or lower numbers to justify enforcement or resistance. National outlets use the same Census-derived number (≈84,000) to highlight scale; political actors deploying enforcement rhetoric treat the size as justification for action. Community sources and some scholars caution that these raw numbers don’t capture citizenship mix, length of residence or socioeconomic integration — factors that matter for policy but are downplayed in political messaging [3] [4] [5].
7. What reporters still don’t agree on — and what to watch next
Available sources do not provide a single, definitive 2024–2025 headcount that reconciles ancestry, citizenship status and undercount adjustments; some outlets report the metro at about 84,000, others cite statewide totals near 83,000–108,000, and community estimates argue those could be conservative [1] [4] [5]. Watch for new ACS releases, state demographer updates, or community‑led canvasses that might refine these estimates and for reporting that explicitly states which Census measure is being used.
Sources cited above are drawn from recent news and local demographic reporting summarized in: KTTC (By the numbers) and AP/PBS/CBS coverage citing the Census ACS, local reporting from Fox9 and Minnesota Compass and state demographer analyses [1] [6] [7] [2] [3] [5] [4].