What is the current unemployment rate for Somali-born and Somali-American residents in Minnesota compared to statewide averages?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows wide, divergent estimates for unemployment among Minnesota’s Somali-born and Somali-American residents: older local reporting and state advocacy documents have cited figures from roughly 11% to 40% for segments of the Somali community, while broader analyses place Somali unemployment higher than the state average but not uniformly triple the statewide rate (statewide rates cited as low as 1.8% in mid‑2022) [1] [2] [3] [4]. Sources disagree on definitions (Somali‑born vs. Somali‑identifying, working‑age population vs. all residents) and on the vintage of the data (2015–2025 ranges) [3] [5] [1].
1. What the sources actually report — headline numbers and who they cover
Local news and community reports offer several different unemployment figures for Somalis in Minnesota: Marketplace cited a Somali unemployment rate “roughly 11%” based on recent census data (covering Somali Americans broadly) [1]. A state advocacy statement for a workforce bill quoted a claim that “40% of the community [is] unemployed,” tied to a broader claim that Somali poverty is very high (that document framed the 40% figure in a policy advocacy context) [2]. An MPR News story from 2015 stated that the unemployment rate for Minnesota’s Somali‑born population was “nearly triple that of the state as a whole,” without giving a single precise number in the snippet but implying a much higher unemployment burden [3]. By contrast, official statewide unemployment figures used for context show Minnesota’s seasonally adjusted unemployment was as low as 1.8% in June 2022 [4]. These numbers are not directly comparable without clarifying definitions and years [4] [1] [2] [3].
2. Why the numbers vary — population definitions, timing and data sources
Sources use different definitions: some refer to Somali‑born residents specifically, others to people of Somali ancestry (including U.S.‑born children), and some conflate poverty and labor‑force nonparticipation with unemployment [3] [1] [2]. Timing matters: the MPR and St. Cloud Times pieces date to mid‑2010s analyses when Somali labor‑force participation and employment patterns differed from post‑2018 or 2022 snapshots [3] [6]. Advocacy documents sometimes use conservative or worst‑case metrics to justify funding for job programs; Marketplace and demographic reporting rely on census or ACS compilations that can smooth over community heterogeneity [2] [1] [7].
3. How Minnesota’s overall unemployment context changes the framing
Minnesota’s headline unemployment has been unusually low in recent years — for example 1.8% seasonally adjusted in June 2022 — which makes any higher group‑specific rate appear especially stark by comparison [4]. But low statewide unemployment is an aggregate statistic that can mask much higher rates in specific groups or neighborhoods; MinnPost and state demographer discussion note that many Minnesotan communities of color, and younger populations such as Somali Minnesotans, can show higher unemployment and poverty than the statewide average [7] [8].
4. Evidence of progress and sectoral integration
Longer‑term trend pieces and business analyses emphasize mobility: the Minnesota Chamber and demographic reporting describe Somali Minnesotans’ increasing labor market integration over decades, higher shares in sectors like home health care and food manufacturing, and rising self‑employment over time for foreign‑born workers [9]. Wikipedia and other compiled data show employment gains for Somali Americans between 2011–2015 and higher employment in Minnesota than national Somali averages in some years, suggesting variation by cohort and time in country [10] [9].
5. Limitations, disagreements and what is not in the sources
Available sources disagree on specific current rates and often omit consistent, up‑to‑date ACS or BLS tabulations broken out by “Somali‑born” vs “Somali‑American” for the same year; no single authoritative 2024–2025 unemployment percentage for Somali‑born Minnesotans versus statewide averages appears in the provided documents (not found in current reporting). Some claims (e.g., “40% unemployed”) come from advocacy material and are not cross‑checked by a cited ACS or BLS table in the available files [2]. The New York Times piece and others emphasize social context (fraud scandal, political backlash) but do not supply a single agreed unemployment statistic [5].
6. Bottom line for readers and next steps for precise comparison
You can reliably say: (a) Somali‑identifying populations in Minnesota have repeatedly been reported with unemployment and poverty rates above Minnesota’s overall average and (b) reported Somali unemployment values in available sources range widely (about 11% in some census‑based reporting up to claims of 40% in advocacy materials), while Minnesota’s statewide unemployment in recent years has been notably low (e.g., 1.8% in June 2022) [1] [2] [4]. To get a definitive, current comparison, consult the American Community Survey or Minnesota State Demographic Center tables that allow a single‑year, consistent definition — those precise ACS/BLS breakout tables are not included in the current reporting set (not found in current reporting).