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Which states have the largest undocumented populations in 2024 and projected 2025?
Executive Summary
Pew Research Center and related analyses identify California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois as consistently holding the largest unauthorized-immigrant populations through 2022–2023, and those six states together comprised roughly 56% of the nation’s total in recent estimates. Preliminary Pew updates indicate the national unauthorized population rose toward 14 million in 2023–2024 and may have peaked in 2024 before showing signs of decline by mid‑2025, but state‑level distributions remained concentrated in the same top states even as growth diffused to other states [1] [2] [3].
1. What the original claims actually assert — simple, testable points that matter
The core claims to test are twofold: first, which U.S. states had the largest undocumented populations in 2024; second, what the projection was for 2025. The available reporting frames this as a question about relative rankings (which states top the list) and about short‑term trend direction (growth continuing into 2024, then a possible pullback in 2025). The consistent, testable claim across sources is that the same six states—California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois—constituted the largest state‑level populations in recent years, although their shares have shifted over time [1] [4]. Those are the precise points that more recent data and projections address.
2. What authoritative data show for 2022–2024 — a picture of growth, concentration and diffusion
Pew’s mid‑2024 synthesis reported an unauthorized population of about 11 million in 2022, with the largest state totals in California and Texas, and Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois following [1]. More recent Pew analyses and follow‑up reporting indicate that encounters at the border and other flows contributed to further increases, and that preliminary estimates rose to roughly 14 million by 2023, with continued growth into 2024 according to aggregated research briefs [3] [2]. Despite numeric increases, geographic concentration declined over decades—those top six states still account for the majority but a smaller share than in 1990, showing dispersion across more states even as the absolute numbers in top states remained high [1] [2].
3. What changed in 2025 — why some reports say the population ‘peaked’ and then fell
Pew’s August 2025 report incorporates more recent monthly and survey evidence and concludes the unauthorized population likely peaked in 2024 and declined by mid‑2025, citing CPS monthly signals and other administrative indicators [2] [5]. Those updates do not upend the state rankings; they describe a net national decrease after rapid growth. The implication for 2025 projections is cautious: models that assumed relentless growth were revised to allow for stabilization or modest decline, driven by changes in border enforcement, asylum processing backlogs, naturalizations, returns, and mortality. These revisions underscore that short‑term projections are sensitive to policy and enforcement shifts [5] [2].
4. State‑level rankings and notable shifts — who gained, who lost and why it matters
Across the period, California and Texas remained at the top in absolute numbers, though California’s share trended down while Florida and Texas showed notable increases between 2019 and 2023; New York, New Jersey and Illinois maintained substantial populations [1] [4]. Some mid‑Atlantic and New England states saw relatively faster percentage increases (Massachusetts, Maryland) even as they remained smaller in absolute terms. These dynamics reflect both changing origin countries and secondary migration within the U.S.: newcomers settle where jobs, networks and policies are favorable, producing state‑level growth that can outpace legacy gateways even if those gateways still host the largest totals [1] [2].
5. Measurement limits, competing interpretations and potential agendas to watch
Estimating unauthorized populations relies on survey adjustments, administrative counts, and modeling; Pew’s methodology includes adjustments for undercount and status change that make short‑term estimates inherently uncertain [5]. Different groups may emphasize particular time slices—advocates highlighting growth to argue for reform, enforcement proponents highlighting declines to justify policy tweaks—so watch for selective use of 2022 vs 2024 vs mid‑2025 numbers. The most defensible statement: the top states listed above still host the largest undocumented populations, national totals rose sharply into 2023–2024 and then showed evidence of decline by mid‑2025, but state rankings remained broadly stable even as geographic dispersion increased [1] [2] [3].