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Fact check: Which cities in the UK have the highest percentage of muslim population?
Executive Summary
The 2021 England and Wales Census remains the principal authoritative source for city-level religion percentages: it shows Muslim populations concentrated in certain northern towns and large cities, with local authorities such as Pendle and Bradford registering roughly a quarter of residents identifying as Muslim, and major cities like Birmingham, Manchester and London hosting the largest Muslim populations by headcount though lower percentages than some smaller areas [1] [2]. Recent mid-2023 to mid-2024 population estimates and reporting on migration and local demographics indicate growth and geographic shifts but do not replace the 2021 baseline for religious percentages [3] [4].
1. Why the 2021 Census still anchors the answer — and what it actually says
The 2021 census is the most comprehensive dataset that directly records religious affiliation at the local-authority and city level; it reports that Muslims made up 6.5% of England and Wales overall, while some local areas recorded far higher shares. Notably, small-unit authorities like Pendle and Bradford reported around 25% Muslim populations, placing them at the top by percentage, whereas larger urban authorities such as Birmingham and Manchester feature high absolute Muslim populations but lower percentages than those smaller boroughs [1] [2]. These census figures provide the baseline for ranking cities by percentage rather than raw numbers.
2. Where percentages peak: towns and metropolitan boroughs to watch
Local authorities with the highest Muslim percentages in 2021 include Pendle (about 25.6%) and Bradford (about 25.5%), both reflecting long-established South Asian Muslim communities and migration patterns from the mid-20th century onward. These concentrations mean smaller administrative areas can top percentage lists even when larger cities host bigger Muslim populations by count, a distinction often missed in broad reporting. The 2021 data remain the primary source for such percentage rankings because more recent population growth estimates do not disaggregate religion at the same granularity [1] [2].
3. Big cities by headcount versus percentage — London, Birmingham, Manchester
London has the largest Muslim population in absolute terms, with nearly 300,000 people of Pakistani heritage reported in related studies and a large, diverse Muslim community across boroughs; however, the percentage of Muslims in London is lower than in some northern towns because London’s overall population is much larger and more religiously mixed. Birmingham and Manchester similarly host substantial Muslim communities by number, but their percentages are typically below the highest-ranked smaller local authorities. This headcount-versus-percentage tension explains apparent contradictions between lists naming “cities with most Muslims” [1] [2].
4. Why more recent population estimates don’t change the city percentage rankings yet
Mid-2023 to mid-2024 population estimates show record growth in the UK largely driven by international migration, which could shift local religious make-up over time; however, these estimates do not include detailed, reliable religion breakdowns at the local-authority level. National reporting indicates faster population growth in England and rising net international migration in 2023–24, factors that may alter local percentages in future census or survey releases, but they cannot be used to definitively re-rank cities by Muslim percentage until religion-specific data are published [3] [4].
5. Conflicting framings in media and why they matter
Media pieces often conflate “most Muslims” by headcount with “highest percentage Muslim population,” leading to different city lists depending on whether reporters use absolute numbers (favoring London, Birmingham, Manchester) or percentages (favoring Pendle, Bradford, some northern boroughs). Some reporting frames focus on cultural or political implications—such as claims about local governance, religious institutions, or social tensions—which can skew perceptions of what the raw numbers mean. Readers should note the difference between concentration (percentage) and total population (headcount) when interpreting headlines [5] [6] [1].
6. Data gaps, potential biases, and what to watch in future releases
Key limitations: the census is now several years old and migration-driven growth since 2021 is uneven across localities; mid-year population estimates lack religion detail; and non-governmental reports sometimes mix ethnicity and religion, which can mislead (e.g., using Pakistani-origin counts as proxies for Muslim populations). There is also political sensitivity—stories emphasizing “Sharia” or communal influence can reflect ideological agendas rather than demographic reality—so triangulation across neutral statistical releases and reputable local studies is necessary [5] [1] [2].
7. Practical takeaway and where to look next
For a clean ranking by percentage, the 2021 census points to Pendle and Bradford among the highest, with several northern boroughs and some metropolitan districts above national averages; for rankings by total Muslim population, London, Birmingham, and Manchester lead. To update these rankings, monitor Office for National Statistics releases for religion-specific surveys or the next census, and consult local authority profiles and peer-reviewed demographic studies that disaggregate religion alongside recent migration data. Recent mid-2023/24 population reports signal change but do not yet provide religion-specific re-ranking capability [1] [3] [4].