What are the age and fertility profiles of the UK Muslim population compared with other religious groups?
Executive summary
UK Muslims are younger and have had higher fertility than other religious groups: studies put UK Muslim total fertility around 3.0 children per woman in 2005–10 versus about 1.8 for non‑Muslims, with projections showing Muslim TFR falling toward ~2.5 by 2030 while non‑Muslim rates remain near 1.8 [1] [2]. The higher fertility partly reflects a younger age profile — Muslims in Britain and Europe are concentrated in prime reproductive ages — but sources also report a clear pattern of decline and convergence with majority populations over time [2] [3].
1. Younger cohort, more babies — the headline drivers
Multiple sources link the larger share of births among Muslims in the UK to two simple demographic facts: a younger median age and a higher total fertility rate. International analyses note Muslims are disproportionately in or entering peak reproductive ages (15–29), which amplifies birth counts even if per‑woman fertility is falling [2]. European data referenced in broader summaries put the median age of European Muslims around 30.4 in 2016, much lower than other Europeans [4].
2. What the numbers say: TFR comparisons and time trends
Published estimates used by analysts show UK Muslim women averaged about 3.0 children per woman in 2005–10 while non‑Muslim women averaged about 1.8; medium‑scenario projections suggested Muslim TFR falling to roughly 2.5 by 2030 while non‑Muslim rates remain near 1.8 [1] [2]. Other modelling exercises apply somewhat different TFRs (for example a 1.44 figure appears in one projection’s assumptions), but they converge on the pattern: higher Muslim fertility historically, with decline expected if current trends continue [5].
3. Why fertility is higher — proximate explanations in the literature
Researchers point to several proximate factors for higher observed Muslim fertility: younger average age at marriage, a higher share of women in early childbearing ages, and immigration patterns that temporarily boost birth rates (new arrivals often have higher short‑term birth rates) [6] [3]. Academic work also notes that as more Muslim women are UK‑born — the proportion rose from around 20% (1988–97) to 36% (2002–06) in one study period — fertility among the group should trend downward toward host‑population norms [3].
4. Convergence over time — evidence and projections
Demographers find a repeated pattern across European countries: Muslim immigrant fertility tends to be higher initially but moves closer to the majority population’s fertility over time and across generations [1]. Multi‑scenario projections used by research centres and commentators show the fertility gap narrowing; even with decline, a remaining gap and a younger age structure mean Muslim shares of births and of the population are expected to grow for decades [2] [5].
5. Migration’s role and why raw TFRs don’t tell the whole story
Analysts caution that migration has been a major driver of Muslim population growth in Europe in recent decades, sometimes exceeding the role of differential fertility [4]. Short‑term rises in births can reflect waves of immigration and refugee settlement as much as durable cultural differences in family size [4]. Some projections explicitly incorporate higher net migration and different age/ethnic compositions when estimating future Muslim shares [5].
6. Limits, disagreements and the risk of overreach
Available sources agree on the broad pattern (younger, historically higher fertility, convergence), but differ on magnitude and longer‑term outcomes: channel‑4/related analyses give the 2005–10 UK Muslim TFR as 3.0 and a 2030 projection of 2.5 [1], while other briefs and modelling documents use alternate TFR inputs [5]. Media summaries and secondary websites sometimes amplify headline projections (e.g., claims about future majorities) without noting underlying assumptions about migration, assimilation and fertility decline; the peer‑reviewed and methodological literature warns against extrapolating short‑term trends into definitive long‑range predictions [1] [3].
7. Bottom line for readers
The UK Muslim population is younger and has had higher fertility than other religious groups, which has increased its share of births and population — but fertility is demonstrably falling and trending toward majority norms over time, and migration patterns materially affect short‑ and medium‑term change [1] [2] [3] [4]. Claims about imminent demographic “replacement” or rapid majoritarian shifts require explicit modelling assumptions about future migration and sustained fertility gaps; those assumptions vary across the sources reviewed and are not uniform [1] [5].
Limitations: available sources do not provide the very latest census‑level TFRs by religion from 2021–2025, nor do they present a single agreed long‑run projection; different studies use different baseline TFRs and migration assumptions [1] [5].