What are the age and fertility profiles of the UK Muslim population compared with other religious groups?
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Executive summary
UK Muslims are younger and have had higher fertility than other religious groups: studies put UK Muslim total fertility around 3.0 children per woman in 2005–10 versus about 1.8 for non‑Muslims, with projections showing Muslim TFR falling toward ~2.5 by 2030 while non‑Muslim rates remain near 1.8 [1] [2]. The higher fertility partly reflects a younger age profile — Muslims in Britain and Europe are concentrated in prime reproductive ages — but sources also report a clear pattern of decline and convergence with majority populations over time [2] [3].
1. Younger cohort, more babies — the headline drivers
Multiple sources link the larger share of births among Muslims in the UK to two simple demographic facts: a younger median age and a higher total fertility rate. International analyses note Muslims are disproportionately in or entering peak reproductive ages (15–29), which amplifies birth counts even if per‑woman fertility is falling [2]. European data referenced in broader summaries put the median age of European Muslims around 30.4 in 2016, much lower than other Europeans [4].
2. What the numbers say: TFR comparisons and time trends
Published estimates used by analysts show UK Muslim women averaged about 3.0 children per woman in 2005–10 while non‑Muslim women averaged about 1.8; medium‑scenario projections suggested Muslim TFR falling to roughly 2.5 by 2030 while non‑Muslim rates remain near 1.8 [1] [2]. Other modelling exercises apply somewhat different TFRs (for example a 1.44 figure appears in one projection’s assumptions), but they converge on the pattern: higher Muslim fertility historically, with decline expected if current trends continue [5].
3. Why fertility is higher — proximate explanations in the literature
Researchers point to several proximate factors for higher observed Muslim fertility: younger average age at marriage, a higher share of women in early childbearing ages, and immigration patterns that temporarily boost birth rates (new arrivals often have higher short‑term birth rates) [6] [3]. Academic work also notes that as more Muslim women are UK‑born — the proportion rose from around 20% (1988–97) to 36% (2002–06) in one study period — fertility among the group should trend downward toward host‑population norms [3].
4. Convergence over time — evidence and projections
Demographers find a repeated pattern across European countries: Muslim immigrant fertility tends to be higher initially but moves closer to the majority population’s fertility over time and across generations [1]. Multi‑scenario projections used by research centres and commentators show the fertility gap narrowing; even with decline, a remaining gap and a younger age structure mean Muslim shares of births and of the population are expected to grow for decades [2] [5].
5. Migration’s role and why raw TFRs don’t tell the whole story
Analysts caution that migration has been a major driver of Muslim population growth in Europe in recent decades, sometimes exceeding the role of differential fertility [4]. Short‑term rises in births can reflect waves of immigration and refugee settlement as much as durable cultural differences in family size [4]. Some projections explicitly incorporate higher net migration and different age/ethnic compositions when estimating future Muslim shares [5].
6. Limits, disagreements and the risk of overreach
Available sources agree on the broad pattern (younger, historically higher fertility, convergence), but differ on magnitude and longer‑term outcomes: channel‑4/related analyses give the 2005–10 UK Muslim TFR as 3.0 and a 2030 projection of 2.5 [1], while other briefs and modelling documents use alternate TFR inputs [5]. Media summaries and secondary websites sometimes amplify headline projections (e.g., claims about future majorities) without noting underlying assumptions about migration, assimilation and fertility decline; the peer‑reviewed and methodological literature warns against extrapolating short‑term trends into definitive long‑range predictions [1] [3].
7. Bottom line for readers
The UK Muslim population is younger and has had higher fertility than other religious groups, which has increased its share of births and population — but fertility is demonstrably falling and trending toward majority norms over time, and migration patterns materially affect short‑ and medium‑term change [1] [2] [3] [4]. Claims about imminent demographic “replacement” or rapid majoritarian shifts require explicit modelling assumptions about future migration and sustained fertility gaps; those assumptions vary across the sources reviewed and are not uniform [1] [5].
Limitations: available sources do not provide the very latest census‑level TFRs by religion from 2021–2025, nor do they present a single agreed long‑run projection; different studies use different baseline TFRs and migration assumptions [1] [5].