Fact check: What is the estimated Muslim population in the UK as of 2025?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the available analyses, no source provides a direct estimate of the Muslim population in the UK as of 2025. However, the most recent concrete data shows significant growth trends. The Muslim population in the UK grew by 150% between 2001 and 2021, increasing from 1.6 million to 4 million people ^[1].

The demographic data reveals a youthful Muslim population with strong growth indicators: 10% of British children identify as Muslim ^[2], and the 0-18 Muslim population represents 11.2% of that age group in England ^[1]. Additionally, for the first time in census recording, the majority of Muslims (50%) are UK born ^[3], indicating a shift from immigration-driven to natural population growth.

An earlier data point from 2019 showed the Muslim population at 5.7% of the total population, or approximately 3,369,400 people ^[4], though this figure appears inconsistent with the 2021 census data of 4 million.

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original question seeks a 2025 estimate, but the analyses reveal that current projections are based on 2021 census data ^[5], creating a significant data gap. The question lacks context about:

• Methodology for population projections - No source explains how demographic experts extrapolate from 2021 data to 2025 estimates
• Regional variations - The data focuses primarily on England rather than the entire UK
• Comparative demographic trends - Missing information about how Muslim population growth compares to other religious or ethnic groups
• Immigration policy impacts - No analysis of how recent UK immigration policies might affect population projections

Organizations like the Muslim Council of Britain would benefit from highlighting robust population growth to demonstrate their community's significance and influence in British society ^{[1] [3]}. Conversely, groups concerned about demographic change might emphasize the rapid 150% growth rate to support arguments about cultural transformation.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself contains no apparent misinformation or bias - it simply requests demographic information. However, the absence of a clear 2025 estimate in available sources suggests that any specific figure provided without proper sourcing could be misleading.

The analyses reveal potential data inconsistencies: one source cites 3,369,400 Muslims in 2019 ^[3], while another reports 4 million in 2021 ^[1]. This discrepancy of approximately 630,000 people over two years requires clarification, as it could indicate either rapid recent growth, methodological differences, or data quality issues.

The question's focus on 2025 may inadvertently promote speculation over established facts, as the most reliable data remains the 2021 census figures showing 4 million Muslims in the UK.