Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: What is the current estimated muslim population in the UK as of 2025?
Executive Summary
The available 2025 estimates for the UK’s Muslim population cluster between about 4.0 million and 4.5 million people, representing roughly 6%–6.5% of the population, but sources differ in scope and method and some cite only older census baselines (2021–2022) rather than direct 2025 counts [1] [2] [3]. A separate projection frames much larger long‑range growth — a claim that Muslim share could approach 20% by 2050 — but that is a forward projection rather than an empirical 2025 estimate and depends on assumptions about fertility and migration [4]. Read on for how these figures were derived, where they diverge, and what is omitted.
1. Conflicting headline numbers — which ones claim 2025 and why they differ
Two recent pieces present competing 2025 headline figures: one places the Muslim population at ~4.0 million (6%) and another at ~4.5 million (6.5%) [1] [2]. The gap reflects different data inputs and rounding choices: one source cites a Muslim Council of Britain analysis anchored to post‑census trends and demographic modelling, while the other emphasizes higher birth rates and migration trends to produce a slightly larger mid‑2025 snapshot. Neither estimate is a direct 2025 census count; both are modelled or aggregated estimates built on earlier census baselines and more recent administrative data, which explains the variance [1] [2].
2. What the baseline censuses actually say and why that matters
Official census releases remain the foundational baseline: the 2021 census for England and Wales and the 2022 Scottish census provide the last full enumerations of religious identity, and those datasets underlie subsequent 2025 estimates [5]. The census evidence demonstrates regional variation and the age structure of Muslim populations — for example, higher shares among children — and is not, by itself, a 2025 count. Using 2021/2022 census data to estimate 2025 introduces modelling assumptions about births, deaths, immigration and changes in self‑identification that can materially affect headline totals depending on which assumptions are used [5].
3. The “children are driving change” signal — what the data show
Analysts note that 10% of British children identified as Muslim in the referenced summaries, an indicator that the religious composition of younger cohorts is shifting faster than that of older age groups [6]. This demographic momentum is a key reason why short‑term estimates rise above the 2021 baseline and why longer‑term projections foresee larger shares by mid‑century. However, the 10% figure is age‑specific and should not be conflated with the population‑wide percentage; headline 2025 adult shares remain in the 6–6.5% range in the cited analyses [6] [2].
4. Long‑range projections versus short‑term estimates — different questions
One source projects Muslim share approaching 20% by 2050, citing sustained higher fertility and migration as drivers [4]. This is a forward‑looking scenario that is not evidence of the 2025 state but does indicate why some commentators frame present increases as part of a broader demographic trend. Projections are sensitive to assumptions about future migration, fertility rates and conversion/identification patterns, so the 2050 figure should be understood as a model outcome under particular assumptions rather than an empirically observed outcome [4].
5. Coverage and geographic scope problems that muddy comparisons
Some statements cite England and Wales figures — for example a 6.5% share — while other estimates claim UK totals; mixing these geographies creates apparent contradictions [3]. England and Wales account for the majority of the UK population, but Scotland and Northern Ireland have distinct census timings and smaller Muslim populations, so adding or excluding those jurisdictions can shift percentage points. The reviewed sources vary in whether they explicitly adjust for Scotland [7] and Northern Ireland when producing a 2025 UK total, and that inconsistency explains part of the spread between 4.0 and 4.5 million [3] [5].
6. Bottom line and cautions for interpreting 2025 figures
Based on the reviewed analyses, the most defensible 2025 range for the UK Muslim population is roughly 4.0–4.5 million (about 6%–6.5%), with upward long‑term projections possible under certain demographic scenarios [1] [2] [4]. Analysts should treat single‑figure headlines cautiously: differences arise from varying geographic scope, reliance on 2021/2022 census baselines, and modelling choices about birth, death and migration flows. Any firm statement about 2025 should specify whether it refers to the UK or just England and Wales and whether it is a census count or a projection built on earlier data [5].