How has the Muslim population in the UK changed over the past decades and what are the projections to 2030 and 2050?
Executive summary
The UK’s Muslim population rose from about 1.6 million in 2001 to roughly 4.0 million in 2021, making Muslims about 6% of the overall UK population according to the Muslim Council of Britain’s census summary [1] [2]. Independent demographers and major studies give divergent mid‑century scenarios: Pew’s earlier modeling anticipated about 5.5 million Muslims (≈8.2% of the population) by 2030 under steady‑migration assumptions [3], while other academic and think‑tank projections span roughly 9.7% to 17.2% by 2050 depending on migration assumptions [4] and one analysis put the share at about 11.2% in 2050 under its assumptions [5].
1. Rapid growth in recent decades — census counts show a clear rise
Census‑based reporting assembled by the Muslim Council of Britain tallies the Muslim population at 1.6 million in 2001, 2.8 million in 2011 and about 4.0 million in 2021, making Muslims roughly 6% of the UK population and concentrated in England where the share is larger than in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland [1] [2].
2. Why the numbers rose: immigration, fertility and younger age profile
Scholars and the census summary attribute the growth to sustained immigration, higher fertility among Muslim families in earlier decades and a younger age profile within Muslim communities; the MCB notes Muslims are young now but will age toward the national profile over time, creating new social‑service needs [1] [2]. Wikipedia likewise cites immigration and higher birth rates as drivers of post‑WWII growth [6].
3. Short‑term projections to 2030 — moderate continuation of growth
Pew Research’s scenario used by fact‑checkers projected “just over 5.5 million” British Muslims — about 8.2% of the UK population — by 2030 assuming recent migration patterns continue [3]. Some commentators and extrapolations published online echo similar mid‑decade increases but differ on underlying assumptions [7] [8].
4. Longer‑term 2050 forecasts diverge sharply with assumptions about migration
Academic modelling gives a wide range for 2050 depending primarily on migration assumptions: one research centre’s scenarios range from about 9.7% of the population in a zero‑migration case to roughly 16.7–17.2% under medium/high migration scenarios [4]. Another projection in the supplied material estimates about 11.2% Muslim by 2050 [5]. Commentators who extrapolate past short‑term growth rates produce much higher—and criticized—claims of a Muslim majority by 2050; those claims rely on simple extrapolation and are disputed by mainstream demographers [9] [10].
5. Where disagreement arises — fertility convergence and migration sensitivity
Projections differ because fertility rates for Muslim women have been falling and are projected to converge toward non‑Muslim rates, and because net migration is the single most sensitive variable in long‑range forecasts; Pew and academic researchers explicitly show that changing migration assumptions alters 2050 shares substantially [3] [4]. Sources that forecast very large shares by mid‑century typically extrapolate earlier short‑term increases without adjusting for fertility convergence or migration uncertainty [9] [10].
6. What that means for public discussion and misinformation
Simplified extrapolations (e.g., straight‑line growth to a 2050 Muslim majority) have been used in alarmist pieces and are flagged by fact‑checkers as misleading because they ignore biodemographic changes and scenario uncertainty [3] [9]. Responsible analysis uses scenario ranges—for example, the research centre’s 2050 range from about 9.7% to 17.2% depending on migration [4]—and highlights that policy choices affecting migration strongly influence outcomes.
7. Limits of the available reporting and what’s not stated
Available sources in this set do not provide a single authoritative government projection for Muslims in 2030 or 2050; they offer census counts to 2021 and multiple scenario‑based studies with differing assumptions [2] [4]. Detailed age‑specific fertility convergence timelines, subnational projections (beyond noting concentration in England and certain cities), and the impact of future conversion rates are not discussed in these documents or are only sketchily treated [1] [6].
Conclusion — measured expectations not dramatic certainties
The census confirms fast growth up to 2021 (about 4 million, ~6% of the population) [1] [2]. Projections to 2030 and 2050 vary: Pew‑style mid‑range scenarios point to modest increases (≈8.2% by 2030) while academic scenario work puts 2050 shares in roughly a 9.7%–17.2% band depending on migration [3] [4] [5]. Extreme claims of an imminent Muslim majority rely on simplistic extrapolation and are not supported by the range of demographic modeling in the sources provided [9] [10].