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Fact check: How has the muslim population in the UK changed since the 2011 census?
Executive Summary
The Muslim population in England and Wales grew substantially between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses: official 2011 figures recorded about 2.7 million Muslims (5% of the population), while early 2021 outputs report 3.9 million identifying as Muslim — a 44% increase and a rise to 6.5% of the population in the places covered by the 2021 release (England and Wales) [1] [2] [3]. Broader UK population growth since 2021 has been driven by migration, but recent national-level Muslim-specific updates beyond 2021 are not present in the supplied materials [4].
1. Why the headline numbers jump — a decade of rapid growth and more Muslim children in schools
The 2011 Census established a base of 2.7 million Muslims in England and Wales, representing 5% of the population and showing a youthful age profile with nearly half under 25; subsequent commentary highlighted high child proportions and relatively fewer elderly Muslims [1] [5]. The 2021 Census outputs then reported 3.9 million Muslims, an increase of 1.16 million people or about 44% since 2011, meaning Muslims accounted for roughly 6.5% of the population covered in those releases; school-age numbers and pupil shares were flagged as especially notable, with Muslim pupil counts having roughly doubled since 2001 [2] [3] [6].
2. Where growth occurred — big city concentrations and local hotspots
The 2021 analyses point to growth concentrated in major urban areas: Birmingham, Bradford, Tower Hamlets, Manchester, and Newham were identified among the localities with the largest Muslim populations, reflecting long-standing settlement patterns and higher birth rates in some communities [3]. The 2011 analysis similarly noted geographic clustering and higher proportions of younger Muslims in urban and more deprived areas, which has implications for local services such as schools and health provision. These place-based concentrations explain why national percentage changes can translate into substantial local shifts in service demand and political representation [1] [6] [3].
3. Demography matters — younger profile, fertility and deprivation flagged
Across the 2011 and follow-up reports, a consistent picture emerges: the Muslim population has a younger age structure, with a high share of children and comparatively fewer older adults, and this contributes to faster population growth through births relative to other groups [5] [1]. Analysts also flagged socioeconomic dimensions: higher representation in deprived areas and labour market challenges, particularly for Muslim women, were noted in the 2011-based studies and reiterated in sectoral analyses about school-age growth, which together suggest growth is not just numeric but deeply connected to education, employment, and welfare provision needs [1] [6].
4. How different sources frame the increase — numbers, policy angles, and advocacy
Government census outputs and early analytical summaries present the numerical change — +1.16 million Muslims between 2011 and 2021 — and location breakdowns, while advocacy and community analyses emphasized implications for services and representation [2] [3]. Earlier media and research pieces used the 2001–2011 doubling to highlight a longer-term trend and drew attention to youth and deprivation, framing the increase as a social policy challenge as well as a demographic fact [5] [6]. These divergent emphases reflect differing agendas: official data focuses on counts and distributions, community-focused reports prioritize service impacts and socioeconomic context [1] [3].
5. What the supplied later population reporting adds — national growth, but not Muslim specifics
More recent population reporting (mid-2024 and 2025 summaries) documents record overall UK population increases driven by international migration and stressed that the UK population reached roughly 69.3 million by mid-2024, but the supplied material does not provide updated Muslim-specific counts beyond the 2021 Census outputs. This means projections from overall migration trends are suggestive but cannot substitute for subgroup census enumeration when assessing Muslim population size or composition after 2021 [4] [7].
6. Limitations, unanswered questions and what to watch next
The primary limitation across the provided materials is temporal coverage: the most detailed subgroup figures stop at the 2021 Census early releases and relate to England and Wales, with incomplete linkage to UK-wide totals and no official Muslim-specific post-2021 census releases in the supplied set; that leaves open the degree to which post-2021 migration and births changed the Muslim share nationally [8] [2] [4]. Future updates to Office for National Statistics releases, local authority population estimates, and community-level surveys will be the necessary sources to track changes beyond 2021, and users should watch for full 2021 Census tables and ONS mid-year estimates disaggregated by religion to close the gap [8] [4].