Fact check: How does the UK Muslim population compare to other European countries in 2025?

1. Summary of the results

The UK Muslim population is estimated to be around 4-5 million, which is 6-7% of the total population, ranking third after France and Germany in terms of absolute numbers ^[1]. The Muslim population in the UK is expected to grow noticeably through natural increases, with a younger age profile and higher fertility rates compared to non-Muslims, with an average fertility rate of 2.6 for Muslims compared to 1.6 for non-Muslims ^[2]. According to Pew Research Center, the UK's Muslim population share is expected to rise from 6.3% to 16.7% in the medium migration scenario, and could potentially triple in the next 30 years if high migration continues ^[3]. The UK has received over 400,000 Muslim migrants from 2010-2023, with Pakistanis being the largest group, numbering around 1.2 million ^[1]. In 2019, 5.7% of the population in England and Wales identified as Muslim ^[4]. Muslims are the fastest-growing faith group, with a 21% increase in their population between 2010 and 2020 ^[5]. The UK's Muslim population is expected to double in two decades ^[6].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

• The original statement lacks specific data on the Muslim population in other European countries for a direct comparison ^{[4] [7] [6]}.
• The sources do not provide a uniform estimate of the UK's Muslim population, with estimates ranging from 3,868,133 ^[8] to 4-5 million ^[1].
• The impact of migration on the UK's Muslim population is mentioned, but the sources do not provide a detailed analysis of how migration policies could affect the population growth ^{[1] [3]}.
• The regional distribution of the Muslim population within the UK is not discussed in the provided analyses ^{[4] [7] [6]}.
• The socioeconomic factors influencing the Muslim population's growth are not explored in the sources, such as education, employment, and healthcare ^{[1] [3] [2]}.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement may be misleading as it implies a direct comparison between the UK Muslim population and other European countries, which is not provided in the analyses ^{[4] [7] [6]}. The sources that provide estimates of the UK's Muslim population and its growth rate may benefit certain groups, such as policymakers or researchers, who are interested in understanding the demographic shifts in the UK ^{[1] [3] [2]}. On the other hand, the lack of discussion on the regional distribution and socioeconomic factors may disadvantage certain communities within the UK, such as local authorities or community organizations, that require more detailed information to develop targeted policies and programs ^{[4] [7] [6]}.