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What are the ONS or national survey estimates for the Muslim population in the UK in 2025?
Executive summary
The most recent official baseline for UK Muslims comes from the 2021 census release and Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) analysis, which reports ~4 million Muslims across the UK and a Muslim share of about 6% of the population (MCB summary citing census figures) [1] [2]. National survey series such as the ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) and other ONS outputs produce interim survey-based estimates and breakdowns, but available sources here point to the 2021 census/Muslim Council of Britain as the clearest recent headline for 2025 reference points [3] [2].
1. Census numbers remain the anchor: “4 million” and ~6%
Journalists and community analysts point repeatedly to the 2021 census as the primary, authoritative count for religion in the UK; the Muslim Council of Britain’s 2025 “British Muslims in Numbers” summary cites the census figure of roughly 4 million Muslims and a Muslim share near 6% of the UK population — figures used across reporting and advocacy work [1] [2]. This 4 million figure is the clearest headline many organisations quoted in 2025 when discussing Muslim demographics in Britain [2].
2. ONS survey estimates exist but are framed as interim and sample-based
The ONS provides survey-derived estimates (for example via the Annual Population Survey) and also responds to Freedom of Information requests with APS-based tables on religion; the ONS itself notes these survey estimates apply to private households only and are subject to sampling uncertainty, so they are not identical to census totals [3] [4]. Where precise 2025 ONS point-estimates for the Muslim population are needed, ONS APS tables and FOI responses are the sources to consult; the sources in this packet indicate ONS has produced such tables but do not give a single 2025 APS headline number here [3] [4].
3. Surveys and polling produce varied percentages — check methodology and coverage
Independent surveys and reviews (e.g., Ipsos MORI’s reviews of Muslim survey research) treat the Muslim share of the UK population differently depending on sample frame and year; past survey summaries noted figures like 4–6% depending on scope and timing [5]. That variance is normal: census counts are decennial and exhaustive, whereas APS and other surveys are sample-based and can vary with question wording, coverage (England & Wales vs Great Britain vs UK), and whether communal populations are included [3] [5].
4. Projections and modelling give higher long‑run growth scenarios — not the same as current estimates
Academic and private projections cited in these search results offer long-range scenarios that place the Muslim share of the UK population higher by mid-century (for instance a projection claiming ~7% in 2025 rising to double digits by 2050) [6]. These are modelled forecasts based on fertility, migration and assimilation assumptions and should not be confused with ONS or census counts; sources explicitly use different assumptions and methods [6].
5. Where to find an ONS 2025 number and caveats you should expect
If you need an official ONS 2025 survey estimate, the ONS Annual Population Survey and ONS FOI outputs on “Muslim population in the UK” and related spreadsheets are the relevant datasets — the ONS FOI pages referenced here confirm they publish APS-based tables and can provide breakdowns by ethnicity and region [3] [7] [4]. Expect: (a) survey margins of error; (b) coverage limited to people in private households in APS; and (c) potential differences from the 2021 census headline due to timing and methodology [3] [4].
6. Conflicting sources and recommended best practice for reporting
Advocacy groups such as the MCB foreground the 4 million/census-derived framing when discussing needs and policy [2]. Some projection studies and non-governmental compilations report different percentages or future scenarios [6] [8]. For accurate reporting in 2025, cite the 2021 census-derived 4 million figure for current population counts and use ONS APS figures (with their margins and coverage) when you need an interim survey-based estimate — and always name whether the number comes from the census, ONS APS, or a projection/model [1] [3] [6].
Limitations: available sources in this set do not include a single explicit ONS-published “Muslim population in 2025” point estimate number; they instead point to the 2021 census-derived 4 million headline, ONS APS survey tables, and various projections and reviews that analysts use to interpret 2025 trends [1] [3] [6]. If you want, I can extract the latest ONS APS table or FOI spreadsheet referenced [3] [7] and summarise its 2025 APS-derived estimate and margin of error.