How do 2011 and 2021 Census data compare for Muslim population growth in UK cities and what drives those changes?
Executive summary
The 2021 Census records roughly 3.9 million people identifying as Muslim in England and Wales, up from about 2.7 million in 2011 — an increase of around 44% and a rise in share from roughly 4.8–5.0% to about 6.5% of the population [1] [2]. That growth is concentrated in major cities (especially London, the West Midlands and northern conurbations), is driven by a mix of a younger age profile, higher fertility, and ongoing migration, and is reshaping local demographics while intersecting with persistent socioeconomic disadvantage [3] [4] [5].
1. Clear growth in numbers, modest shift in national share
Between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses the Muslim population in England and Wales rose from about 2.7 million to approximately 3.9 million, a near 44% numerical increase reported by the ONS and analysed by multiple observers [1] [2]. That translated into a rise in the Muslim share of the national population from roughly 4.8–5.0% in 2011 to about 6.5% in 2021, a significant proportional increase but one that still leaves Muslims as a minority nationally [6] [2].
2. Geography: where growth has concentrated and where it matters most
Growth is not evenly spread: London contains the largest Muslim population and the highest proportion in the country (around 15% of Londoners identify as Muslim), while boroughs such as Tower Hamlets remain national outliers with roughly four in ten residents identifying as Muslim (Tower Hamlets 39.9%, up from 38.0%) [7] [1]. Other high-concentration areas include parts of the West Midlands and northern cities; commentators note Leicester and Birmingham reached “minority-majority” compositions in 2021 as overall ethnic and religious mixes changed [8] [5].
3. Demographic engines: young age profile and fertility
Analysts and community groups point to the Muslim population’s distinctly youthful age structure as a primary engine of growth: a third of those identifying as Muslim are under 16, which supports higher birth rates relative to older religious groups and sustains natural increase over time [1]. Research aggregations and guides emphasise that age structure and fertility patterns — more than short-term migration alone — explain a substantial share of the decade-on-decade increase [3].
4. Migration and dispersal: part of the story, not the whole story
Migration remains a contributor: new arrivals from conflict-affected or climate-stressed countries, plus longer-term immigration flows, added to Muslim population totals between censuses, but authoritative summaries stress that migration interacts with the demographic profile rather than being the sole cause of growth [4] [3]. The Muslim Council of Britain and other analyses also observe a gradual spatial dispersal beyond traditional urban enclaves, suggesting internal mobility as communities mature [4].
5. Socioeconomic context and inequalities
While numbers have grown, multiple sources highlight that Muslims disproportionately reside in deprived local authorities and face entrenched socioeconomic challenges: analyses cited by community organisations find large shares of British Muslims living in the most deprived districts and point to disparities in housing, health and qualifications that predate and outlast the census cycles [4] [7]. Civic commentators warn that demographic growth without investment risks entrenching disadvantage in concentrated areas [2] [4].
6. What the data do not prove and alternative perspectives
Census snapshots show patterns but cannot by themselves establish causal weightings between fertility, migration and internal mobility; different organisations foreground different drivers — academic demographers emphasise age and fertility while advocacy groups highlight migration and segregation — and both perspectives are visible in the public reporting [3] [4]. The religion question in the census is voluntary, which introduces caveats about under- or non-response even though response rates were high in 2021; observers therefore urge triangulation with birth, migration and labour-market datasets [1].
7. Implications for cities and policy
City-level demographic shifts affect schooling, housing, health and political representation: growing youth populations concentrated in certain local authorities will require more targeted services, while the geographic dispersal of Muslims could alter electoral maps and service demand outside historic enclaves [4] [5]. Policymakers and city planners face the twin tasks of addressing persistent deprivation flagged in community analyses and responding to changing population structures revealed by the 2011–2021 comparisons [4] [2].