Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: Which UK cities have the highest Muslim population growth rates between 2020 and 2025?
Executive Summary
The available materials show there is clear evidence of a growing Muslim population in the UK through the 2011–2021 census period and continued population growth at local levels through 2023–2024, but none of the sources provided supply direct, measured city-level Muslim population growth rates for 2020–2025. The strongest, census-based claims identify cities with the largest Muslim populations (Birmingham, Bradford, Tower Hamlets, Manchester, Newham) and national increases through to 2021, while more recent local population change reporting (mid‑2023 to mid‑2024) does not break out religious demographics, leaving a gap for precise 2020–2025 Muslim-specific city growth rates [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the headline question cannot be answered directly — data gap exposed
None of the supplied analyses provide explicit, validated growth rates for the Muslim population by city between 2020 and 2025, so a definitive ranking of UK cities by Muslim population growth rate over that period is not available. The Muslim Council of Britain and related census summaries document aggregate increases to 2021 and list cities with the largest Muslim populations, but they stop short of producing year‑by‑year or 2020–2025 subnational growth rates by religion. Recent local area population change reports (mid‑2023 to mid‑2024) show overall population shifts but do not disaggregate by religion, leaving a crucial data gap for the exact metric requested [1] [2] [3].
2. What the 2011–2021 census establishes — where Muslim populations are largest
Census-derived reporting shows the Muslim population in England and Wales rose substantially between 2011 and 2021, increasing by roughly 1.16 million people and accounting for about 6–6.5% of the population; the largest absolute Muslim populations in 2021 were concentrated in Birmingham, Bradford, Tower Hamlets, Manchester, and Newham. These findings establish concentrations and long‑term growth through 2021, which are useful proxies for likely high‑growth urban areas, but they do not provide the narrow 2020–2025 growth window requested, nor rates per city for that span [1] [2].
3. Recent local population shifts offer partial context but not religious detail
Mid‑2023 to mid‑2024 local population change data indicate some UK areas experienced large percentage changes—City of London showed an 11.06% increase in that period—yet those reports are total population figures and do not specify religion. Using overall population change as a proxy for Muslim population change risks error because migration, birth rates, and internal mobility affect demographic subgroups unevenly. Thus, while local growth can point to areas to investigate further, it cannot substitute for religion‑specific statistics needed to rank cities by Muslim population growth between 2020 and 2025 [3] [4].
4. Community-level reports and advocacy analyses confirm growth trends but have limits
Community and advocacy summaries, such as those from Muslim organisations, reiterate that Muslim populations are growing and highlight cities with high concentrations—Bradford, Walsall, Oldham among them—but these pieces generally synthesise census data or provide broader projections rather than new, independently measured 2020–2025 city‑level growth rates. Such reports are valuable for context about distribution and socio-demographic characteristics but do not close the evidence gap for the precise five‑year growth rates sought [5] [1].
5. Conflicting aims and potential agendas in available sources
Different sources serve different purposes: official census analyses aim for comprehensive enumeration; local population trackers prioritise timely overall population change; community organisations emphasise representation and policy impacts. These divergent agendas explain why religion‑specific, recent subnational growth rates are scarce: methodological priorities and data privacy constraints limit the release of fine‑grained religious breakdowns at small geographic levels, and advocacy pieces may emphasise magnitude and needs rather than precise statistical rates [2] [3] [6].
6. Practical next steps to produce the requested ranking with confidence
To answer which UK cities had the highest Muslim population growth rates between 2020 and 2025, the required data are: religion‑by‑city population counts timely enough to cover 2020–2025, or modeled estimates validated against the 2021 census. Researchers should seek updated religion breakdowns from official statistical authorities, request bespoke tabulations where available, or combine migration and birth data with 2021 baselines to model 2020–2025 changes—approaches that address the current absence of direct measurements in the provided sources [1] [4].
7. Bottom line: responsible reporting requires new or bespoke data
Current, credible public sources confirm a rising Muslim population nationally to 2021 and identify cities with the largest Muslim populations, while recent total-population updates show local growth patterns to 2024; however, none of the reviewed materials directly provide city-level Muslim population growth rates for 2020–2025, so any specific ranking for that period would be speculative without new or bespoke statistical outputs. For a definitive list, one must obtain religion‑specific, subnational time‑series data or rigorously modeled estimates anchored to the 2021 census [1] [3].