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Fact check: What is the percentage muslim population of the UK?

Checked on October 17, 2025

Executive Summary — Clear answer and why numbers differ

The best available 2021-census–based estimates put the Muslim population in England and Wales at roughly 4.0 million people, which various analysts translate into about 6%–6.5% of the population depending on the geographic denominator used and rounding choices [1] [2]. More recent mid‑2024 population growth and differing reporting frames (England & Wales versus the whole UK, plus subsequent migration) mean that simple percentage headlines can either understate or overstate the current share; the core fact is that 2021 census counts cluster around four million Muslims, and that figure yields a Muslim share near six percent [1] [3] [2].

1. Why the headline percentages vary — subtle definitions shift results

Analysts using the 2021 census start from similar underlying counts but produce different percentages by changing the denominator and rounding. The Muslim Council of Britain’s March 2025 summary reports 4 million Muslims out of an assumed UK population of 67 million, giving 6% [1]. By contrast, the September 2025 summary that cites the census frames 3.999 million Muslims in England and Wales and computes a 6.5% share, which implies a smaller denominator and a focus on England and Wales rather than the full UK [2]. Different geographic frames — England & Wales versus the whole UK — and updated total-population estimates drive these percentage differences.

2. Raw counts from public data — three slightly different tallies

Public-facing tallies derived from official returns and FOI disclosures cluster around the same order of magnitude but differ in precision. A June 2025 Freedom of Information reply lists approximately 3.87 million Muslims in England and Wales [3]. The Muslim Council of Britain’s March 2025 reporting cites 4 million Muslims [1]. Another September 2025 summary cites 3.999 million and reports a 6.5% figure [2]. All three figures point to roughly four million people identifying as Muslim in the 2021 census footprint of England and Wales, with small variations due to classification or tabulation choices.

3. Population growth after 2021 changes the percentage math

National population estimates rose after the 2021 census: reporting in September 2025 references a mid‑2024 UK population estimate near 69.3 million and record net international migration, which alters the denominator used to convert Muslim counts into percentages [4] [5]. If the Muslim count stays static while the total population grows, the Muslim share will fall slightly; conversely, migration and differential birth rates could raise the Muslim population in absolute and relative terms. Using a later, larger total-population figure lowers percentage estimates unless Muslim counts are updated for post‑census growth [4] [6].

4. Who’s reporting and what their perspectives might be

Sources come from advocacy organizations, government returns, and media summarization. The Muslim Council of Britain frames figures to highlight community size and needs [1] [7], while the FOI reply appears to be a direct administrative count [3]. Media pieces on overall population growth focus on migration drivers and broader demographics [4] [5] [6]. Each actor has an informational agenda — advocacy emphasizes representation, FOIs provide administrative precision, and population coverage situates religion numbers within changing totals — so cross‑referencing is essential.

5. What’s the safest, short factual takeaway for readers

Based on the 2021 census-derived tallies available in 2025, the Muslim population in England and Wales is about four million people, which corresponds to roughly six percent of the population when using comparable denominators [1] [3] [2]. If one uses updated UK population estimates from 2024, the percentage share is slightly lower because the overall population grew; the underlying count near four million remains the anchor [4] [5].

6. Important caveats that change interpretations

Two major caveats affect headline percentages: first, the 2021 census is the primary baseline but does not capture post‑2021 migration and demographic change, so contemporary shares may differ [1] [4]. Second, geographic framing matters: most available figures apply to England and Wales; extending the count to include Scotland and Northern Ireland or using different total‑population estimates produces different percentages [3] [2]. Readers should treat any single percentage as an approximation anchored to a specific dataset and date.

7. What to watch for next — updates that will change the story

Future government releases, updated census breakdowns, or new FOI disclosures that reconcile religion counts with mid‑year population estimates will clarify the current share. Media coverage of net migration and birth rates through 2024–2025 already shows the denominator shifting upward [4] [5]. The most reliable short-term way to refine the percentage is a matched update: a Muslim-count estimate that uses the same mid‑year total‑population figure — until then, use “about four million / roughly 6%” as the best, fully-sourced summary [1] [3] [2].

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