What are current demographics and projected population trends for Muslims in the UK through 2050?
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Executive summary
Census and community reports put the UK Muslim population at about 4 million in 2021 (roughly 6% of the UK population in England and Wales) and split roughly evenly by sex: 1,960,762 males and 1,907,371 females in England & Wales (Census 2021) [1][2]. Multiple demographic projections — from academic teams, think‑tanks and Pew-style scenarios — show a wide range for 2050 depending on migration and fertility assumptions: roughly 9.7% in a zero‑migration scenario to about 16.7–17.2% in medium/high migration scenarios, with some independent analyses projecting as high as ~11.2% by 2050 under certain models [3][4][5].
1. Current size and profile: a young, diverse population
The Muslim population recorded in 2021 was about 4 million in England (and counted across England and Wales as roughly 3.9–4.0 million in community summaries), with communities drawn from South Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe and concentrated in urban centres such as London, Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool [1][6]. Census counts show close to parity in male and female self‑identification: about 1.96 million males and 1.91 million females reporting Muslim religion in England and Wales [2]. Community reporting emphasises internal diversity — multiple ethnicities and languages — and notes a younger age profile than the national average [1].
2. What drives future numbers: fertility, age structure and migration
All the projection work in the public record identifies three levers: higher fertility rates among Muslim populations (though fertility typically converges toward national averages over generations), a younger age structure that produces momentum even with falling fertility, and net migration flows — particularly the level of regular migration and refugee arrivals [7][8][3]. Pew’s broader European work shows that even with zero future migration, the Muslim share rises because of existing age/fertility differences [8]. Research Centre projections explicitly present separate 2050 outcomes for zero, medium and high migration scenarios: 9.7%, 16.7% and 17.2% respectively [3].
3. The range of mainstream projections and why they differ
Official and academic scenarios do not agree on a single number because they use different assumptions about future migration and how quickly fertility will fall. Statista and CREST‑style projections put the UK Muslim share about mid‑teens by 2050 under medium/high migration assumptions (around 16–17.2%) [4][3]. An academic projection cited by an independent centre produced a higher mid‑century estimate (11.2% by 2050 in that model) but also shows much larger increases later in the century under sustained scenarios [5]. Conservative extrapolations or simplistic linear growth models produce far higher — and widely criticised — claims of rapid path to majority status; these extrapolations neglect changing fertility, assimilation effects and migration policy [9][10].
4. How to read the most extreme claims
Some commentators have extrapolated short‑term growth rates into a straight line and claimed a Muslim majority by 2050; fact‑checks and mainstream demographers reject that interpretation as methodologically unsound because it ignores fertility convergence and plausible migration bounds [9][10]. Peer and institutional projections (Pew, CREST/academic teams) give far lower and more nuanced ranges — typically single digits to mid‑teens of the total population by 2050 depending on scenario [8][3].
5. Social and political context: perceptions and stakes
The demographic discussion is politically charged. Community groups and researchers emphasise internal diversity and social challenges (employment, ageing needs), while polling and commentary show rising concerns and contested public sentiment about Islam in Britain [11][6]. Reports note that Muslims are more likely to feel constrained talking about Islamic topics and that public opinion includes significant negative views — context that shapes how demographic findings are politicised [6].
6. Limitations, uncertainties and what’s not in the sources
Available sources make clear that projections are scenario‑based; they vary widely with migration and fertility assumptions [3][8]. Sources provided do not offer a single authoritative ONS projection for 2050 as a point forecast in this set; they also do not include post‑2021 census fertility or migration time‑series detailed enough here to recompute projections. Claims in some media pieces that Britain will be majority‑Muslim by 2050 are not supported by the mainstream scenario work cited [9][3].
Conclusion — a guarded forecast for readers
Mainstream demographic work — when it uses explicit scenarios and plausible bounds — points to continued growth of the Muslim share of the UK population through mid‑century, likely landing in the high single digits to mid‑teens by 2050 under most medium/high migration scenarios and closer to roughly 9–10% if migration were to halt [3][4][8]. Extreme majority‑by‑2050 claims rely on naive extrapolation and are not borne out in the scenario‑based research cited here [9][10].