Projections for Muslim population in UK by 2050

1. What the major projection models say — two scenarios, very different drivers

The most-cited formal work behind the headlines is the Pew Research Center projection: under a zero‑migration scenario the UK Muslim population reaches about 6.56 million (12.7% of the population) by 2050; under a high‑migration scenario it reaches about 13.48 million (17.2%) by 2050 ^[1]. Media outlets and aggregators present a “medium” or “central” projection near 13.06–13.48 million (roughly 16.7–17.2%) — a figure that assumes continued immigration in addition to fertility differences ^{[3] [4] [2]}.

2. Why projections diverge — migration, fertility and identity

Projections vary because they change assumptions about net migration and future fertility. Pew’s scenarios explicitly show how results shift: with migration curtailed, Muslim growth still continues because fertility has historically been higher among Muslim women than among non‑Muslims, but the scale is much smaller than under high migration scenarios ^[1]. Media summaries repeat the idea that higher birth rates plus continued immigration drive the larger mid‑ and high‑range estimates ^{[2] [4]}.

3. What recent reporting is recycling — a consistent “13 million” headline

Multiple recent web pieces and summaries present a near‑identical number — roughly 13 million Muslims (~16.7% of the UK) by 2050 — and attribute it to a “medium migration” projection or to Pew‑style modelling ^{[3] [4] [5]}. These outlets generally do not show the lower (zero‑migration) alternative in detail, which can give the impression of broad consensus even though authoritative estimates present a range ^{[3] [4]}.

4. Extreme claims and how they stack up to the data

Older polemical pieces that extrapolate current trends into linear growth have claimed a Muslim majority or more than 50% by 2050; Channel 4’s FactCheck and other analyses have debunked simple extrapolations as unreliable and point to Pew’s much lower central estimates ^{[6] [7]}. The formal projections cited in reporting do not support a >50% outcome; authoritative scenario work shows outcomes between roughly 6.6 million and 13.5 million depending on migration ^{[1] [7]}.

5. Limits of the available reporting and gaps you should know about

Available sources here are a mix of primary projection reporting (Pew as summarized on Wikipedia) and secondary or republished articles that reuse similar figures without always showing methodology or alternative scenarios ^{[1] [2] [3]}. The secondary pieces emphasize the mid‑range 13 million figure but often lack transparent citations to the original Pew report; available sources do not mention details like exact fertility trajectories, age‑structure modelling, or how conversions/outflows are handled beyond the headline scenarios ^{[2] [4]}.

6. How to read these numbers in public debate — competing perspectives

One perspective treats higher projected Muslim shares as a neutral demographic shift driven by births and migration and calls for policy planning around services and integration ^{[2] [4]}. Another perspective, found in older commentary, uses dramatic extrapolations to claim a civilisational or political transformation ^[6]. Fact‑checking outlets warn against simple extrapolation and emphasize scenario nuance: the difference between “zero migration” and “high migration” assumptions produces very different outcomes ^{[7] [1]}.

7. Practical next steps if you want more precise answers

For rigorous follow‑up, consult the original Pew projections and their technical appendix (the Wikipedia summary points to Pew’s 2017 scenarios) to see exact assumptions on migration and fertility; compare those against Office for National Statistics census data for 2021 to ground the short‑term baseline ^{[1] [2]}. If you want to evaluate policy implications, ask for scenario runs that vary migration, fertility convergence, and identity reporting to see best‑ and worst‑case envelopes — those methodological choices explain most of the headline differences in reporting ^{[1] [7]}.

Sources cited in this piece: Pew projections summarized on Wikipedia ^[1]; recent reprints and explainers using a “13 million / ~16.7%” mid‑range figure ^{[2] [3] [4] [5]}; critique and fact‑check of linear extrapolations ^{[6] [7]}.