How do UK Muslim population projections compare to those in other European countries by 2050?
Executive summary
The Pew Research Center’s scenario-based projections—widely cited in academic and media reporting—place the United Kingdom among the European countries with the largest Muslim populations by 2050, but well short of any majority: under medium migration assumptions the UK would have just over 13 million Muslims (about 16.7% of the population) and under high-migration scenarios roughly 13.48 million (around 17–17.2%), while a no‑migration scenario yields a much lower figure (about 6.56 million or ~12.7% in some summaries) [1] [2]. These headline numbers make the UK a relative outlier in share and absolute numbers compared with many European states, yet the range of outcomes is wide and driven primarily by migration assumptions and fertility convergence over time [1] [3].
1. The Pew baseline: UK among the largest Muslim populations in Europe by 2050
Pew’s multi‑scenario work projects that if recent “regular” migration flows continue, Europe’s Muslim population will grow substantially and the UK would host the continent’s largest Muslim community by 2050 at just over 13 million, about 16.7% of the UK population—figures presented in Pew’s public summary and repeated across reporting [1]. Pew’s high‑migration variant pushes that UK Muslim count slightly higher (commonly reported as about 13.48 million), while a zero‑migration scenario yields a much smaller Muslim share, underscoring how sensitive outcomes are to future migration policy and flows [2].
2. How the UK compares in absolute numbers and shares to Germany, France and Italy
Several media summaries of Pew’s work place Germany and France in the same league on absolute Muslim population by 2050—Germany around 17 million, France and the UK roughly similar at about 13 million each, and Italy lower at roughly 8 million—meaning that in raw headcounts Germany may exceed the UK but the UK’s share of its national population remains comparatively high under many scenarios [4]. Europe‑wide shares also change markedly with migration: a medium scenario raises Europe’s Muslim share from under 5% to roughly 11% by 2050, while sustained high refugee flows could push that figure much higher—demonstrating the continent‑level context for national comparisons [1].
3. Why projections diverge: migration scenarios and fertility convergence
Pew’s projections explicitly model three migration circumstances (zero, medium/“regular” migration, and high/refugee‑intensive migration), and those choices produce very different national outcomes; the UK’s positioning as a top destination for regular Muslim migrants is a key reason it ranks highly in the medium scenario [1]. Demographers and fact‑checks caution that higher fertility among Muslim populations historically narrows over time toward host‑country norms—so long‑term fertility convergence reduces the compounding effect of higher birth rates and makes extreme extrapolations unreliable (Channel 4 factcheck summarizing demographic research) [3].
4. Competing narratives and unreliable extrapolations
A spectrum of outlets amplifies different narratives: some tabloids and blogs claim the UK will reach “nearly 20%” Muslim or even a Muslim majority by 2050, while think‑tank polemics have extrapolated past growth to predict a majority—claims that go beyond Pew’s scenario ranges and ignore fertility convergence and migration uncertainties [4] [5]. These more alarmist projections often rely on linear extrapolation of past short‑term trends instead of scenario modelling and therefore diverge sharply from mainstream demographic analysis [3].
5. Bottom line: larger than many, but uncertain—and policy sensitive
In short, mainstream demographic modelling (notably Pew’s) places the UK among the European countries with the largest Muslim populations by 2050 in both absolute numbers and share, typically in the mid‑teens percentage range under medium and high migration assumptions, but projections vary greatly with migration policy and fertility trends and do not point to any near‑term Muslim majority [1] [2] [3]. Reporting that claims far higher shares or unavoidable outcomes reflects explicit political or rhetorical agendas or uses simplistic extrapolation rather than the conditional scenarios most demographers apply [4] [5].