What are the latest fertility rates for UK Muslims versus non-Muslims by age group?
Executive summary
The available research and reporting show that Muslim women in the UK historically have had higher fertility than non-Muslim women and a younger childbearing profile, but fertility has been converging over time and precise, up-to-date age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) by religion are not published in the cited sources, so exact “latest” numeric rates by single-year age groups cannot be provided from these documents [1] [2] [3].
1. Historic pattern: higher fertility and younger age profile among UK Muslims
Multiple academic reviews and contemporary reporting observe that Muslim women in Britain have tended to have higher overall fertility and a younger age structure of births compared with the non‑Muslim majority, a pattern highlighted in census-era analyses and demographic papers [3] [1] [4].
2. Convergence and postponement: the modern trajectory
Demographers note an important dynamic: while the total fertility rate (TFR) for Muslim women has been higher historically, fertility among Muslim immigrant populations in Europe, including the UK, has fallen and moved closer to the majority population over time, with signs of postponement among UK‑born Muslim women [2] [3].
3. Ethnicity, migration timing and socioeconomic context complicate simple religion-based comparisons
Authors caution that observed differences often reflect ethnicity, country of origin and migration timing as much as religion per se — for example, Pakistani and Bangladeshi women have been identified with particularly higher fertility within UK datasets, and researchers have argued that ethnicity sometimes explains fertility differentials better than a simple Muslim/non‑Muslim split [5] [3].
4. What the cited sources do and do not provide on age-specific rates
The supplied sources report general patterns, census age-structure observations and academic analyses showing Muslim fertility is “greater” in many contexts and younger in age distribution, but none of the cited items supply a recent, fully disaggregated table of ASFRs by single-year or five-year age bands for Muslims versus non‑Muslims in the UK for the latest year [4] [1] [3] [6].
5. Media narratives and their limits: caution against alarmist extrapolations
Press pieces that emphasized a rapid “rise” in Muslim births or implied imminent majoritarian demographic change have been challenged by fact-checking and demographers who point out that younger age profiles and short-term TFR differences do not translate straightforwardly into long-term majorities because fertility declines and assimilation/change in subsequent generations reduce the gaps [1] [2].
6. Practical implication: where to get the numeric ASFRs and why they matter
To obtain the latest numeric age-specific fertility rates by religion for the UK, one must consult ONS releases or detailed academic studies that explicitly calculate ASFRs by parental religion or use birth registration FOI data (the FOI request page appears among the sources but does not itself publish a full ASFR table in the cited snippet), otherwise the best available evidence remains pattern‑based rather than precise, current rate tables in the provided material [6] [1].