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Fact check: What proportion of uk population is not white
Executive Summary
The proportion of the UK population that is not white depends on the dataset and geography referenced: the 2021 Census figures imply roughly 18–19% non-white in England and Wales with UK-wide estimates varying by nation, while some analyses and projections place the non-white share higher today (around 25–27%) and rising substantially by mid-century (over 40% by 2050). Key recent sources include the 2021 census breakdowns and a June 2025 projection that models long-term demographic change; both must be read together to understand current snapshots versus future trajectories [1] [2].
1. Why numbers diverge — snapshot census versus demographic projection
The most direct snapshot is the 2021 Census for England and Wales, which reports 81.7% identifying as White, implying 18.3% not white for that area and time; similar breakdowns for the other UK nations show higher White shares (Scotland 93%, Wales 94%, Northern Ireland 97%), producing different UK-wide percentages when combined [1] [3]. By contrast, a June 2025 demographic projection forecasts the White British share shrinking from 73% to 57% by 2050 and predicts the non-white share rising from around 20% in recent years to 34.8% by 2050 and even higher late-century — these are modelled scenarios, not census counts [2]. The difference is therefore a matter of current enumeration versus modeled future change, and both are relevant for different questions.
2. What the 2021 census actually says about “not white” today
Detailed 2021 census outputs show England and Wales at 81.7% White, equating to 18.3% not white, while separate national tallies indicate England ~19% non-white, Scotland ~7% non-white, Wales ~6% non-white, Northern Ireland ~3% non-white, depending on the classification used and whether “White British” or all “White” categories are aggregated [1] [3]. This means any UK-wide headline requires careful weighting by population: using the nation-level shares produces a UK figure different from the England-and-Wales figure alone. The census also documents subnational variation, underscoring that national averages mask local diversity [1].
3. London and regional diversity — the stark local contrasts
London is an outlier: deep-dive census analysis shows 287 ethnic groups present and borough-level non-white shares ranging from under 20% to nearly 70%, with 10 of 33 boroughs majority non-white and Newham recorded at 69.2% non-white in 2021. These figures illustrate how urban concentration drives much of the non-white population share, meaning policy and public perception can diverge sharply between London and many other UK regions [4]. The regional picture therefore complicates simple national percentages and explains why the lived reality in cities feels very different from national averages.
4. How analysts infer a higher current non-white share (around 25–27%)
Some analyses infer a larger non-white share today by focusing on the decline in those identifying as White British — for example, a fall from 80.5% to 74.4% in certain measures is interpreted as implying a roughly 25.6% non-white population, after accounting for “other white,” mixed, Asian, and Black groups and migration flows. These inferences combine census shifts with more recent migration and birth-rate trends to produce mid-decade estimates that exceed the strict 2021 snapshot [5] [2]. Such approaches are useful for near-term trend-reading but depend on assumptions about migration and fertility that differ between studies.
5. Long-term projections — what growth in non-white population would look like
The June 2025 projection presents a long-term shift: White British from 73% down to 57% by 2050, non-white rises to 34.8% by 2050, and continued change into 2100 where non-white shares could exceed 50–60% depending on scenario assumptions [2]. These projections incorporate migration scenarios and differential birth rates; they are not predictions but model outputs contingent on the underlying assumptions. They are important for planning and debate because they show possible futures, not certain outcomes, and they often become focal points for political narratives on immigration and identity.
6. Sources, potential agendas, and why cross-referencing matters
Census releases are baseline, enumerative data from national statistics offices and provide the most reliable snapshot [1]. Projections and commentary [2] [5] can be accurate trend-indicators but reflect modelling choices; they are sometimes cited in political debates to argue for or against immigration policy changes. The agenda risk is highest with projection headlines that are used out of context; readers should treat projections as scenarios and give primacy to the census for current proportions while using projections for planning context.
7. Bottom line for the question “What proportion of the UK population is not white?”
If you mean the most direct, recent census snapshot, use England and Wales: ~18.3% non-white, and nation-level figures imply a lower UK-wide proportion when Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are included [1] [3]. If you mean current estimates accounting for changes since 2021, some analyses place the non-white share nearer 25–27%, and if you mean future projections, models project non-white shares above 34% by 2050 under plausible scenarios [5] [2]. Context matters: be explicit whether you refer to census counts, current estimates, or modeled futures.