How have regional distributions of Muslim residents in the UK changed between 2011, 2021 and 2025 estimates?
Executive summary
The UK Muslim population rose from about 2.7–2.8 million in 2011 to roughly 3.87–4.0 million in 2021, increasing its share from about 4.9% to roughly 6.5%–6.7% of the population (England & Wales figures) [1] [2]. Recent 2025 summaries and commentary treat the 2021 census as the baseline for a UK Muslim population "approximately 4 million" and note ongoing geographic spread beyond traditional urban concentrations such as London, Birmingham and Manchester [1] [3].
1. Census growth: clear decade-long increase, concentrated in England and urban centres
Between 2011 and 2021 the number of people identifying as Muslim increased by about 1.16 million in England and Wales — from roughly 2.7 million in 2011 to about 3.87 million in 2021 — a jump that raised the Muslim share to around 6.5% of England & Wales population [2] [4]. National summaries and reporting single out London as still having the largest Muslim population and highest concentration, while other major urban centres (Birmingham, Manchester, Bradford, Oldham) continued to host sizeable Muslim communities [5] [6].
2. Regional distribution: more than just London — spreading out from conurbations
Multiple sources emphasise that while London retained the largest Muslim population and a high proportion (around 15% in some accounts), the 2021 data show dispersal beyond traditional hubs, with Muslims "starting to spread out of concentrated conurbations" and growing presence across other districts [5] [2]. The Muslim Council of Britain further reports that around 40% of England’s Muslims live in the most deprived fifth of local authority districts, signalling pockets of concentration beyond central London and in economically disadvantaged areas [2].
3. Local authority and subnational detail: patchy public reporting, but clear patterns
Available summaries give headline regional shares (e.g., England ~6.7%, Wales ~2.2%, Scotland ~2.2%, Northern Ireland ~0.6%) and note London as the stand‑out region by proportion and absolute numbers [1]. Detailed ward- and borough-level shifts are not provided in these summary sources; the Office for National Statistics and Muslim Council of Britain draw on the 2021 census for detailed local authority lists but those granular tables are not reproduced in the documents cited here [1] [7]. Therefore precise local‑authority changes since 2011 cannot be enumerated from the current set of sources.
4. Demography driving distribution: youth and natural increase, plus migration
Analysts attribute much of the numerical increase to a younger age profile and higher birth rates among Muslim populations, together with migration; academic commentary and MCB analysis say growth is driven by second- and third‑generation British Muslims as well as arrivals from conflict-affected countries [4] [2]. That demographic momentum explains why growth shows both in established cities and increasingly in other districts where housing or employment opportunities exist [2].
5. 2025 narratives and estimates: consolidation, not a new census
2025 reporting and advocacy summaries treat the 2021 census as the definitive recent benchmark and describe the UK Muslim population as "approximately 4 million" [1] [3]. These 2025 documents do not present a new census; they analyse and summarise 2021 data and related trends. They also emphasise policy implications — needs for services for a young population and for addressing deprivation — rather than presenting fresh, nationwide counts for 2025 itself [1].
6. Caveats, data limits and competing emphases
Official ONS material and academic discussion note limitations: public summaries often cover England & Wales together and some data (e.g., fine-grained regional or sub‑group breakdowns) are not available in the snapshot sources provided here [7] [4]. Different outlets round and label totals slightly differently — some sources state 3.87–3.9 million for England & Wales in 2021, others round to "about 4 million" for the UK in 2025 summaries [2] [1] [3]. These reporting choices produce small discrepancies but do not alter the central finding of substantial growth and a widening geographic footprint.
7. What the sources do not show
Available sources do not mention a published, new 2025 census or an ONS release that provides fresh 2025 population counts by region; they do not offer complete ward‑level change tables within this set of documents [1] [7]. For precise, up‑to‑date regional breakdowns beyond the 2021 baseline you will need the ONS or constituent statistical agencies' detailed local authority tables or a formal 2025 population estimate series, neither of which is included in the provided material [7].
Summary judgement: between 2011 and 2021 the Muslim population rose by roughly 1.1–1.2 million and expanded its geographic spread beyond historic urban concentrations. 2025 commentary treats 2021 as the baseline ("around 4 million") and highlights dispersal and persistent socioeconomic inequalities, but does not supply a new, independently counted regional distribution [2] [1].