How have unauthorized immigrant population estimates in Minnesota changed since 2019 and why?
Executive summary
Officially published estimates put Minnesota’s unauthorized immigrant population higher in 2023 than in 2019, with Pew Research Center reporting an increase of roughly 40,000 people to about 130,000 in 2023; independent data tools from the Migration Policy Institute and other analysts confirm rising estimates but show variation depending on methods and benchmarks [1] [2] [3]. The change reflects a mix of real migration and arrival patterns, differences in estimation methods, and updated weighting to newer survey and administrative controls — not a single undisputed count [3] [4].
1. What the numbers say: multiple estimates, same direction
Pew’s state table places Minnesota’s unauthorized population at about 130,000 in 2023 and notes an increase of roughly 40,000 since 2019, representing about 2.2% of the state’s population and roughly one-quarter of Minnesota’s immigrant population, according to Axios’ reporting of Pew’s analysis [1]. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) produces similarly framed topline and profile estimates using pooled American Community Survey (ACS) microdata for 2019–23 and weights tied to academic benchmarks for 2023; MPI’s tools are part of the most recent academic effort to quantify unauthorized populations and therefore underpin many recent state estimates [2] [3]. Other estimates published earlier or by different organizations are lower — e.g., reports and analyses have cited figures in the 75,000–95,000 range for earlier years — underscoring that multiple reputable estimates exist and that they converge on growth but differ on scale [5] [6] [7].
2. Why the estimates rose: real arrivals plus updated data and weighting
Two linked forces explain much of the upward revision: real demographic change from greater arrivals and asylum seekers in recent years, and methodological updates that use newer survey pools and external benchmarks to weight results to 2023 controls. MPI’s 2023 data set imputes legal status across pooled 2019–23 ACS responses and ties estimates to 2023 unauthorized-population benchmarks provided by academic experts, a process that will raise or lower state totals relative to older single-year snapshots [2] [3]. Pew’s 2019-to-2023 comparison likewise relies on ACS-based methods and shows a substantive increase in Minnesota’s share of unauthorized immigrants between those pooled survey years [1].
3. Why disagreements persist: sampling, definitions and political context
Discrepancies among estimates stem from different treatment of temporary noncitizens, how researchers impute legal status from survey responses, and the control totals or administrative inputs chosen to scale ACS-based imputations; the DHS also publishes partial state estimates using different methods, adding another frame that sometimes conflicts with academic tools [4] [8]. Sources of reporting and advocacy can implicitly push narratives: academic and nonprofit data tools aim for methodological transparency [3] [2], while think tanks and advocacy reports sometimes emphasize policy implications and may cite older baselines or narrower definitions to bolster arguments about “surge” or “manageable” numbers [7] [6].
4. What the numbers do — and don’t — prove about policy or enforcement
An upward shift in estimated unauthorized residents signals increased demand for services, school enrollment changes, and labor-market impacts noted in state reporting, but it does not on its own prove causes like enforcement policy or single events; analysts caution that ACS-based estimates reflect residence, not enforcement outcomes or short-term crossings, and that the most recent peer-estimated totals stop at 2023 or the pooled 2019–23 window, leaving later 2024–26 dynamics less certain in these published series [4] [3] [7]. Journalistic accounts and fact checks emphasize that while the trend is upward, interpretation requires attention to method and timing — and that state-level policy debates often outpace what the underlying data can definitively show [4] [7].
5. Bottom line and limits of current reporting
Minnesota’s unauthorized immigrant population estimates rose from 2019 to 2023 by a meaningful margin in major academic and research-center analyses — roughly +40,000 in Pew’s read of the ACS — but exact totals vary across MPI, Pew, advocacy groups and state reports because of different imputations, benchmarks and sampling windows [1] [2] [3] [5]. Reporting and data tools cited here are transparent about methods and about the fact that the most reliable ACS-based estimates effectively end with 2023 pooled data; therefore, any claim about 2024–26 levels requires newer administrative or survey inputs not yet available in the cited sources [4] [3].