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What are the projected unauthorized immigrant population changes by state for 2025?
Executive summary
There is no single, authoritative projection of 2025 unauthorized immigrant population changes by state in the materials provided; available estimates describe state totals through mid‑2023 and discuss national trends into 2024–25 but stop short of producing consistent, state‑level 2025 projections (not found in current reporting). Major recent estimates: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) reports about 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants nationally in mid‑2023 and provides state profiles through 2023 [1]; Pew Research Center later revised and reported 14 million for 2023 and describes likely changes through mid‑2025 but emphasizes uncertainty [2] [3].
1. State snapshots stop at 2023 — here’s what the best state data show
The most detailed state‑level breakdowns in the sources come from the Migration Policy Institute’s state profiles and data tool, which supply estimates and county detail for 2023 and flag methods used to impute unauthorized status from pooled ACS and SIPP data and outside weighting [1] [4]. MPI’s fact sheet frames state totals and county lists for 43 states plus DC as of mid‑2023, but MPI does not publish uniform, model‑based projections of changes by state for 2025 in the materials provided [1] [4].
2. National estimates diverge slightly but both warn about 2024–25 uncertainty
MPI estimated 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants in mid‑2023 [1], while Pew’s later work revised some prior numbers and published a 14 million estimate for 2023 [2] [3]. Both organizations note that administrative flows, border encounters, parole programs, and changes in asylum and parole policy have driven rapid change since 2019, but they also stress that household surveys and administrative records provide only a rough picture for 2024–25 and that trends may have slowed or reversed in early 2025 [1] [2] [3].
3. Why you won’t find a trustworthy state‑by‑state 2025 projection in these sources
The sources explain methodological limits that prevent easy, precise 2025 state projections: MPI’s state profiles are weighted to 2023 estimates and adjusted for undercount using academic inputs [4], while Pew notes that monthly CPS and administrative data hint at national changes in 2024–25 but are not designed for exact, state‑level counts or projections; Pew explicitly says these data only “give us a rough idea” of 2024–25 changes [2] [3]. As a result, neither MPI nor Pew provides a consistent set of projected changes by state for 2025 in the materials supplied [1] [2] [3].
4. What the national signals suggest about likely state patterns
Both MPI and Pew document that growth from 2019–23 occurred across many states, with the top six states (California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Illinois) still hosting a large share but less concentrated than in past decades (roughly 56% of the unauthorized population in top six states as of 2023) [1] [5] [6]. Reporting notes that between 2021 and 2023 growth exceeded 75,000 in multiple states including New Jersey, Illinois, Georgia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Ohio — indicating the dispersion of new arrivals beyond traditional gateway states [7] [6].
5. Recent policy and enforcement changes make 2025 trajectories contested
Analysts emphasize that shifts in Mexican enforcement, U.S. asylum restrictions, parole programs and a change in U.S. administration all affect flows and stock counts: MPI and Penn State researchers say border arrivals fell from 2023 to 2024 and that 2025 outcomes depend on how the U.S. administration pursues deportation and border policies [8]. Pew also documents that hundreds of thousands who had been paroled from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela lost temporary protections in 2025, which complicates how they are counted [3].
6. Conflicting short‑term signals: growth, then slowdown, possible decline
Pew’s analysis notes growth into 2024 but finds monthly CPS data showing a decline in the immigrant population by mid‑2025, implying the unauthorized population may have fallen in early 2025 — but Pew cautions these indicators are provisional and not definitive [2] [3]. Other outlets and analysts raise alternative interpretations (e.g., DHS and non‑academic groups have cited different figures), and researchers warn it’s “too soon to know” whether apparent declines reflect real departures, changes in survey response rates, or measurement differences [9].
7. Practical guidance if you need state‑level 2025 estimates
Given the lack of agreed, published 2025 state projections in these sources, the most reliable approach is to start from MPI’s and Pew’s 2023 state/tabular data and then apply scenario adjustments informed by administrative flows (border encounters, parole counts) and CPS trends while transparently communicating uncertainty — but note that MPI and Pew themselves do not provide a single, validated 2025 state projection in the materials provided [1] [2] [3].
Limitations and final note: The sources cited offer robust 2023 state totals and strong discussion of national trends through early‑to‑mid‑2025, but none publishes authoritative state‑by‑state projections for 2025 in the materials you supplied; claims about precise 2025 state changes are therefore not found in current reporting [1] [2] [3].