What is the undocumented immigrant population of Minnesota?
Executive summary
Two leading, recent estimates put Minnesota’s undocumented (unauthorized) population between roughly 95,000 and 130,000 people, with analysts and advocates citing older or narrower estimates as low as about 81,000 depending on year and method; differences reflect distinct methodologies, dates, and the line drawn between “unauthorized” and other noncitizen statuses (MPI/Pew/advocacy analyses) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The headline numbers — two dominant estimates
A 2023-state estimate reported in national coverage (summarized by Axios Twin Cities) places Minnesota’s unauthorized population at about 130,000 as of 2023, equal to roughly 2.2% of the state’s population, a figure pulled from a Pew Research Center analysis cited by Axios [2]. By contrast, nonprofit and state-focused analyses frequently cite a lower figure near 95,000 undocumented residents—Minnesota Budget Project’s 2025 analysis, for example, explicitly reports an estimated 95,000 people without lawful status among the state’s immigrant population [1]. Both numbers are used widely in media and policy discussions and therefore form the practical range policymakers and reporters reference [2] [1].
2. Why estimates diverge — methodology, definitions, and timing
Estimates vary because data sources and statistical methods differ: some researchers impute unauthorized status from pooled American Community Survey and SIPP microdata and then weight to external benchmarks (the Migration Policy Institute describes such an imputation approach that underpins many 2023 unauthorized estimates) while other analysts adjust ACS counts for undercounts or use different timing windows or state-level models [4] [5] [6]. Definitions also matter: MPI and similar projects often include visa overstayers and people with “twilight” statuses (e.g., DACA, TPS, pending asylum) in broader unauthorised tallies, while some state analyses attempt to separate those groups—creating divergent totals even from the same underlying surveys [4].
3. Context: undocumented population compared with total immigrant counts
Putting the unauthorized estimates in context, Minnesota’s total immigrant population is often reported around half a million; MN Compass notes “nearly half a million” immigrants in the state, a mix of citizens, lawful residents, refugees and noncitizens—so the unauthorized share, whether 95,000 or 130,000, represents a fraction of total immigrants but is still politically and economically significant [7]. Advocacy reports and labor analyses highlight that undocumented workers are concentrated in particular industries and regions, which shapes local policy and fiscal debates [1] [8].
4. Who uses which number — agendas and implications
The 95,000 figure appears prominently in progressive or labor-oriented analyses that emphasize economic contributions and risks of enforcement (Minnesota Budget Project) and is used to estimate fiscal impacts if removals occurred [1]. The higher 130,000 figure, derived from Pew’s state-level modeling, is cited in broader national-media accounts to document a post-2019 increase and to compare states’ shares of unauthorized residents [2]. Conversely, conservative-leaning commentators and think tanks may cite older, lower point estimates (for example a 2019 figure of ~81,000 appears in some analyses) to argue for different migration interpretations; those older numbers reflect earlier baselines and should not be conflated with 2023-weighted estimates [3].
5. Limits of available reporting — what cannot be resolved from these sources
The sources reviewed do not provide a single, contemporaneous administrative count; instead they offer modeled estimates with different assumptions and update cadences, so it is impossible from these materials alone to state a single definitive headcount beyond the range presented [4] [6]. where datasets are updated or reweighted (ACS, SIPP, CMS augmentations) the point estimates shift; the Migration Policy Institute and Center for Migration Studies document these methodological realities and caution about direct comparability across tools [5] [6].
6. Bottom line — the best short answer from available reporting
Based on recent, reputable analyses, Minnesota’s undocumented population in the early 2020s is most plausibly described as being in the ballpark of 95,000 to 130,000 people, with 95,000 cited by state-focused policy research (Minnesota Budget Project) and about 130,000 reported in media summaries of Pew’s 2023-modeled state estimate; differences stem from methodology, definition, and timing rather than simple error [1] [2] [4].