What are the geographic distributions of undocumented immigrants across U.S. states in 2025?
Executive summary
Pew’s August 2025 analysis estimates a record 14 million unauthorized immigrants in 2023 and sketches that the national total “probably started to decline” in 2025 amid policy changes and increased removals [1]. State-level profiles from Migration Policy Institute and other data tools show the unauthorized population concentrated in traditional destination states—California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois—while overall geographic concentration has fallen over decades [2] [3] [4].
1. Big picture: national totals and recent trendlines
Scholars disagree on the headline number, but major research cited here places the unauthorized population at an all-time high in 2023 — roughly 13.7–14 million — and documents rapid growth between 2021 and 2023 [5] [1]. Pew and MPI note that policy actions in late 2024 and 2025 — curtailed parole and asylum pathways and stronger enforcement — likely slowed arrivals and “probably started to decline” the population in 2025, although complete, definitive 2025 state-by-state counts are not yet available [1] [6].
2. Where they live: traditional concentrations remain but diffusion increases
Longstanding destination states still host the largest shares: Pew and contemporaneous summaries identify California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois as the six states that continue to hold the majority of unauthorized residents [3] [2]. Yet researchers emphasize a long-term pattern of de‑concentration — the top six states accounted for about 80% of the unauthorized population in 1990 but only about 56% by 2022 — meaning undocumented residents are more dispersed across states than in prior decades [4].
3. State detail: where to look for firm figures and limitations
MPI’s state and county profiles provide the most systematic state-level estimates through 2023 and are the best existing source for geographic distribution; their online data tool covers 43 states and DC and the 135 counties with largest unauthorized populations [7] [2]. Pew’s national estimate is adjusted for undercount and survey issues and comes with a Q&A describing why 2024–25 trend evidence is provisional: monthly CPS and administrative data point to a mid‑2025 decrease but are incomplete for precise state totals [6] [1].
4. Points of disagreement and competing claims
Federal agencies and partisan statements have made large, differing claims about 2025 changes. DHS released figures saying 1.6 million people “have left” since January or that over 2 million have been removed or self‑deported in less than a year — claims that are framed as enforcement successes but do not directly translate to a validated national or state-level resident count in peer‑reviewed estimates [8] [9]. Academic and nonpartisan analysts caution that survey undercounts, shifting legal statuses (parole revoked for hundreds of thousands), and migration response behaviors can all distort short‑term measurement [6] [1].
5. What drove geographic shifts through 2023–25
The growth in 2021–23 reflected both higher border arrivals and expanded parole programs that brought people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Ukraine — many of whom are counted as “unauthorized” when temporary parole protections were later rescinded [1]. At the same time, reductions in geographic concentration reflect new settlement patterns: migrants increasingly moved beyond traditional gateways into a wider set of states and counties, a pattern documented by MPI and discussed in Pew‑cited analyses [2] [4].
6. Data caveats: why state maps for 2025 remain provisional
All current state-level breakdowns rely on data through 2023 (MPI, Pew) and on survey or administrative signals through 2024–mid‑2025; researchers explicitly warn that “complete estimates are not yet possible” for 2025 because of incomplete administrative records, changes in legal status, and survey response issues [1] [6]. Claims of large, rapid interior declines by agencies are not yet reconciled with independent population‑estimation methods that adjust for undercount and status changes [8] [6].
7. How to follow this story responsibly
Use MPI’s state profiles and Pew’s methodological Q&A as primary references for state distributions through 2023 and watch for updated MPI state fact sheets and Census or CMS adjustments for 2024–25; both organizations flag that short‑term changes may reflect policy shifts, removals, and measurement rather than stable demographic redistribution [2] [6]. For policy claims about mass departures or removals, compare DHS press releases with independent research notes and methodological discussions from Pew and MPI that explain limitations and alternative interpretations [8] [1] [7].
Limitations: authoritative, fully reconciled state-by-state counts for 2025 are not available in these sources; the best accessible data describe distributions through 2023 and provide provisional trend evidence into 2024–mid‑2025 [2] [6].