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Fact check: How does the number of illegal immigrants in the US compare to other developed countries in 2025?
Executive Summary
The United States had an estimated 13.7–14 million unauthorized (commonly called “illegal”) immigrants in recent tallies, placing it among the largest absolute counts in the world but not offering a straightforward apples‑to‑apples comparison with other developed regions because of differing definitions and measurement practices [1] [2]. Global datasets show large migrant stocks concentrated in regions such as Europe and Northern America, but these sources aggregate lawful and unlawful migration and therefore cannot by themselves determine the US share of irregular migrants without careful disaggregation [3]. Key takeaway: the US leads in absolute estimates of unauthorized residents, but measurement differences, drives of migration, and regional data practices limit direct ranked comparisons with other developed countries or regions [1] [3] [4].
1. Why absolute counts put the U.S. near the top — and what that actually means
Multiple recent estimates place the U.S. unauthorized population in the high millions — roughly 13.7–14 million — a scale larger than any single European country’s irregular population and larger in absolute terms than most developed countries [1] [2]. Absolute counts favor large, high‑income destination countries, because totals reflect population size and historical migration ties as much as enforcement or policy. Comparing raw numbers therefore highlights the U.S. as a major destination, but it does not show prevalence relative to population or legal migration patterns, and it mixes long‑term residents with recent arrivals in many estimates [1] [2]. Policymakers and analysts must treat raw counts as a starting point, not the whole story.
2. Regional context: global migrant stocks versus irregular migration specifics
Global compilations such as the United Nations’ International Migrant Stock place 304 million international migrants worldwide in 2024, with Europe hosting 94 million and Northern America 61 million, but these figures capture all migrants, not just unauthorized ones [3]. Large regional migrant stocks do not translate directly into large irregular populations; many migrants in Europe and North America are legal residents or citizens. The UN data are essential for context but insufficient for isolating irregular migration trends. Analysts must combine global stock figures with specialized country‑level studies to estimate unauthorized populations accurately [3]. This mismatch in scope is a central reason direct comparisons across developed countries are often misleading.
3. Measurement problems: counting the hard‑to‑count and definitional fog
Irregular migration is hard to measure, and both the EU and U.S. face substantial definitional and data limitations that complicate comparisons [4] [2]. The European Parliamentary Research Service highlights gaps in EU datasets and varying national methodologies that undercount returns and irregular presence [4]. U.S. estimates vary across research centers and years — Pew and Migration Policy Institute note divergent totals (11.0 million in one 2022 estimate versus 13.7–14 million in later assessments) — reflecting methodological changes, timing, and assumptions about emigration and naturalization [1] [5]. Any cross‑country ranking must therefore account for differing survey frames, administrative records, and political incentives shaping reported numbers.
4. Different migration drivers change the comparison story
The United States’ irregular flows are largely driven by economic migration from nearby countries, whereas many European irregular flows have been shaped in recent years by refugee movements and asylum pressures [6]. Differences in drivers affect visibility, policy responses, and measurement: economic irregular migrants may move for work and settle in shadow economies, while refugees and asylum seekers often interact with formal systems and produce discrete spikes in border arrivals. Comparing country totals without acknowledging these different dynamics risks conflating fundamentally different phenomena and misreading policy tradeoffs [6]. Analysts should therefore pair counts with qualitative context about origins and legal pathways.
5. What to watch next and how to interpret reported rankings
Given the large U.S. unauthorized population reported by migration experts and the contrasting data regimes in Europe and elsewhere, the U.S. ranks high in absolute unauthorized counts but not necessarily in per‑capita rates or proportional impact [1] [3]. Reliable comparisons require harmonized definitions, transparent methods, and up‑to‑date national studies; absent those, cross‑national rankings are provisional. Users evaluating “how the U.S. compares” should demand clarity on whether figures are absolute counts, per‑capita shares, or modeled estimates, and should scrutinize dataset limitations disclosed by the source [4] [1].