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Which US metropolitan areas saw the largest percentage growth in Muslim residents from 2010 to 2025 and why?
Executive summary
Available sources do not list US metropolitan areas ranked by percentage growth in Muslim residents from 2010 to 2025; national- and region-level estimates and projections suggest substantial Muslim growth in the United States driven by immigration and natural increase, with Pew projecting U.S. Muslims rising from 2.6 million in 2010 toward much higher counts by 2030 and North America seeing a 52% increase in Muslims from 2010–2020 [1] [2]. Local patterns (metro-level percentage gains and the precise “why” for 2010–2025) are not reported in the supplied material (not found in current reporting).
1. What the big-picture data say: strong national and regional gains
National projections and demographic summaries in the available sources show sizable growth among Muslims in the U.S. and North America: Pew’s long‑range work projects the U.S. Muslim population rising from about 2.6 million in 2010 to a much larger figure by 2030 (the literature repeatedly cites the 2.6 million base and the projected increase) and Pew’s 2010–2020 analysis finds the rate of Muslim growth was highest in North America, where the Muslim population reached about 5.9 million in 2020 — a 52% increase over the decade [1] [2]. These regional and national figures establish the context that growth is concentrated in North America relative to other regions [2].
2. What the sources say about drivers of growth
The coverage attributes U.S. Muslim growth primarily to immigration and natural increase (younger age structure and higher birth rates), with immigration often described as the “primary engine” in multiple summaries and projections [3] [4]. Pew’s methodology discussions and summaries emphasize fertility, age structure and migration as key components of growth [1]. Some reports and advocacy‑oriented summaries also note conversions and internal community dynamics, but available source material stresses immigration and natural increase as the dominant drivers [3] [4].
3. What we do not know from the supplied reporting: metro-level percentage winners, 2010–2025
The supplied results do not provide a ranked list of U.S. metropolitan areas by percentage growth in Muslim residents for 2010–2025. There are city and state snapshots (for example, counts in Houston or references to state concentrations), and mosque counts increased 31% from 2010 to 2020 per one source, but none of the provided items gives a systematic metro‑by‑metro percentage growth series from 2010 to 2025 — therefore claims about which specific metros grew fastest in percentage terms are not supported by the provided material (not found in current reporting; p1_s4).
4. Local clues in the sources — where growth is plausibly concentrated
Although no metro ranking is provided, the sources repeatedly identify state and city concentrations that indicate likely hotspots: New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Texas are listed among states with the largest Muslim populations (by raw numbers) and specific cities like Houston, Philadelphia and Paterson are mentioned as having substantial Muslim communities [5] [6]. Raw population size alone does not equal percentage growth, but larger established communities often attract continued immigration, family reunification and community retention that can produce locally high absolute growth even if percentage change varies [5] [6].
5. Mechanisms that would produce high percentage growth in a metro
Based on the drivers the sources identify, metros likely to show high percentage increases between 2010 and 2025 would be those that: 1) received disproportionate shares of new immigrants or refugee resettlement; 2) had younger Muslim populations producing natural increase; or 3) experienced local conversions or visible institutional growth (e.g., new mosques). The sources stress immigration, young age structure and higher fertility as the main mechanisms [3] [4] [6].
6. Conflicting viewpoints and caveats in the reporting
The supplied material contains different estimates and methodological notes: Pew’s projections and the U.S. Religion Census produce differing counts and shares for U.S. Muslims, and other outlets reproduce or interpret those projections in varying ways [1] [6]. Some sources emphasize conversions as notable in specific states (e.g., Illinois) but other pieces frame conversion as a smaller component overall compared with immigration and natural increase [7] [3]. These discrepancies underline that metro‑level conclusions would be sensitive to source choice and method [7] [3].
7. What would be needed to answer your question precisely
To identify which U.S. metropolitan areas saw the largest percentage growth in Muslim residents from 2010 to 2025 you would need metro‑level population estimates of Muslims for both endpoints or a credible trend series (e.g., Pew microdata by metro, U.S. Religion Census by metro for 2010 and 2020, or academic/municipal studies that track mosque membership and immigrant settlement). The supplied search results do not include such a metro‑by‑metro dataset or 2010–2025 percent‑change table, so that precise ranking cannot be produced here from the available reporting (not found in current reporting; [6]; [8]1).
If you want, I can: (A) look for Pew, the U.S. Religion Census or academic studies with metro‑level Muslim estimates for 2010 and 2020/2025; or (B) produce a list of likely candidate metros (e.g., New York, Chicago, Houston, Paterson) and explain why each would plausibly show strong growth, but note that would be inferential rather than drawn from the supplied sources.