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Which US metropolitan areas saw the largest percentage increase in foreign-born Muslim residents from 2010 to 2025?
Executive summary
Available sources do not provide a direct, metro‑level ranking of which U.S. metropolitan areas saw the largest percentage increase in foreign‑born Muslim residents from 2010 to 2025; national and state‑level estimates and broad demographic trends are reported instead [1] [2]. Pew and related analyses emphasize that much U.S. Muslim growth in recent decades has been driven by immigration — about two‑thirds of U.S. Muslims have been foreign‑born historically — but the sources do not list metro‑by‑metro percentage changes for 2010–2025 [3] [1].
1. Why the question can’t be answered precisely from available reporting
No source in the provided set publishes metro‑level percentage changes in foreign‑born Muslim residents between 2010 and 2025; the material focuses on national totals, state rankings, or demographic characteristics (for example, state totals for Muslim populations and national survey results) rather than metropolitan growth rates [2] [1]. Because the U.S. Census does not ask religion on the decennial census, most estimates rely on specialized surveys and religion‑census projects that report at varying geographic detail — and the sources here do not include a consistent metro series for 2010 and 2025 [1] [2].
2. What the sources do establish about immigration and U.S. Muslim growth
Pew and other demographic work show that immigration has been a major driver of U.S. Muslim population growth: historically roughly two‑thirds of U.S. Muslims were foreign‑born (64.5% cited), which means changes in migrant flows strongly influence local Muslim populations [3]. Nationally, multiple datasets and 2020 religion‑census style counts place U.S. Muslim totals in the multi‑millions and show upward trends driven by immigration, higher fertility among some Muslim subgroups, conversions in pockets, and the coming of age of younger cohorts [4] [1].
3. Which places are likely candidates for large percentage increases — and why
While metro‑level change percentages are not given in the sources, several logically plausible candidates emerge from population concentration and immigration patterns: major immigrant gateways (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago/New Jersey‑area metros), metros with historically large Arab or South Asian diasporas (Dearborn/Detroit; Paterson/New York metro), and metros that attracted refugee or asylum cohorts (areas that resettled Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans in the 2010s). State and national reporting show New York, California and Illinois among states with the largest Muslim populations in raw numbers [2], which implies metros within these states likely saw substantial numeric increases even if percentage growth could vary by base size [2] [5].
4. Limits and alternative interpretations in the sources
Sources disagree or vary in methodology: e.g., the 2020 U.S. Religion Census gives different totals from survey‑based estimates like Pew’s RLS; WorldPopulationReview and data aggregators offer state totals that are not directly comparable to Pew survey margins [2] [4]. Some sources emphasize natural increase (higher fertility) and youth as drivers [4], while others point to migration and international refugee flows as decisive [6]. These differing emphases matter: a metro with modest immigration but high fertility could see growth in Muslim population share without a major inflow of foreign‑born residents [4] [3].
5. What would be needed to answer your question rigorously
A rigorous metro‑level ranking requires consistent, comparable estimates of foreign‑born Muslim counts in each metropolitan area for both 2010 and 2025. That would typically combine: (a) a baseline 2010 estimate (religion censuses, localized surveys, or modelled distributions), (b) a 2025 equivalent built from the same methodology (Pew RLS or updated religion census output), and (c) explicit tabulation of foreign‑born status by metro. None of the provided sources supplies that paired, metro‑specific time series [1] [2].
6. Practical next steps I can take for you
I can (a) search for metro‑level religion‑oriented datasets or academic papers that model foreign‑born Muslim populations by CBSA for 2010 and 2025; (b) compile state and large‑metro raw counts from Religion Census, Pew RLS and Justice For All and estimate metro changes with clear methodological caveats; or (c) assemble a list of likely high‑growth metros (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago/Detroit, Paterson/Dearborn) and document the evidence and uncertainties for each from the available sources [2] [5] [1]. Tell me which of these you prefer.