What is the current size of the US Muslim population and how fast is it growing?
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Executive summary
Estimates of the U.S. Muslim population vary: major surveys put the figure between about 3.45 million (Pew’s 2017 baseline and related reporting) and roughly 4.5 million (the 2020 U.S. Religion Census), while some private compilations and outlets report higher or different percentages [1] [2] [3]. Demographers say the community is growing faster than the national average and is projected to reach roughly 8.1 million by 2050 under Pew’s projections, roughly doubling its current share of the U.S. population [1] [4].
1. Numbers on the table: different estimates, different methods
There is no single authoritative headcount: Pew Research Center’s public-facing materials cite an estimate of about 3.45 million Muslims in the U.S. based on its 2017 survey framework and subsequent analyses [1]. The 2020 U.S. Religion Census—an institutional tally of congregational reports—records about 4.45 million Muslim Americans, a notably higher figure [2] [3]. Private compilations and secondary sites repeat or reinterpret these sources and sometimes report still different totals [5] [6].
2. Why the gap exists: surveys, censuses and definitions
The variation stems from methodology. Pew’s estimate is survey‑based, relying on representative sampling and self‑identification; the Religion Census aggregates mosque and organizational data, which can overcount (multiple memberships) or undercount (unaffiliated individuals). Media and aggregated websites sometimes blend projections, state tallies, and older studies, producing inconsistent headlines [1] [2] [6].
3. Growth drivers the sources identify
Sources point to four principal engines of growth: immigration, higher-than-average birth rates among Muslim families, the coming of age of U.S.-born Muslim cohorts, and some conversion into Islam [5] [4] [2]. Pew’s global work also emphasizes fertility and youth as core drivers of Muslim population growth worldwide—context that translates to faster domestic natural increase for the U.S. Muslim population as well [4].
4. Pace of growth and future projections
Pew projects that the U.S. Muslim population will grow faster than several other religious groups and forecasts roughly 8.1 million Muslims in the U.S. by 2050, about 2.1% of the national population—almost double the share estimated in some current counts [1]. Globally, Pew projects Muslim population growth of about 35% over two decades in its broader reports, framing U.S. trends within wider demographic momentum [4].
5. Geographic and demographic detail worth noting
State-level compilations list New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Texas among the largest Muslim-population states by raw numbers; such distributions matter for political representation, services and community institutions [6]. Justice For All and other community profiles stress that a large share of American Muslims are young—one cited figure is 26% aged 18–24—amplifying future natural increase and civic engagement [2].
6. Points of contention and caution in the sources
Sources disagree on the magnitude of conversion and retention. Some community profiles and state reports claim meaningful conversion contributions in states like Illinois, while other demographers and Pew emphasize immigration and fertility as the dominant long-term drivers; conversion figures are reported unevenly and sometimes contradicted within the same local studies [5] [7] [2]. The Religion Census’s higher total conflicts with Pew’s lower survey estimate, and outlets that repackage these numbers often do not explain the methodological differences [2] [1].
7. What we don’t know from these sources
Available sources do not mention a single definitive 2025 census-quality headcount accepted by both major demographic centers, nor do they provide fully reconciled estimates that adjust simultaneously for multiple-counting, nonresponse bias, and the population’s mobility (not found in current reporting). Details on retention rates after conversion and longitudinal birth-rate comparisons specific to U.S. Muslim subgroups are reported unevenly across the cited items [5] [2].
8. Bottom line for readers
The U.S. Muslim population is clearly growing and is projected to continue growing faster than some other U.S. religious groups; exact current counts depend on methodology—Pew’s survey-based approach yields about 3.45 million today, the Religion Census reports about 4.45 million, and Pew projects growth to about 8.1 million by 2050 [1] [2] [4]. Readers should treat single‑figure headlines cautiously and look for methods (survey vs. organizational census) when comparing estimates [1] [2].