Which US states are expected to see the highest Muslim population growth by 2030?

1. Bigger states, bigger gains — why raw numbers point to New York, California and Illinois

Most sources rank New York, California and Illinois as the states with the largest current Muslim populations — New York ~724,475, California ~504,056, Illinois ~473,792 — and they note that Muslim Americans cluster in large metropolitan areas, so absolute growth through 2030 is likeliest where numbers already are highest ^{[2] [3] [4]}. When demographers talk about “which states will see the highest growth,” absolute increases track existing population centers because immigration, family formation and local community infrastructure concentrate newcomers and births in metros ^[4].

2. National projection: big jump to 2030 that will reshape state shares

Pew-style regional projections cited by reporting foresee the U.S. Muslim population more than doubling from about 2.6 million in 2010 to roughly 6.2 million in 2030, a rise driven by ongoing immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims in North America ^[1]. That national growth establishes a context in which the states with the largest communities today are the most likely to record the largest numeric gains by 2030 ^[1].

3. Percent growth versus numeric growth — different answers, different headlines

Sources stress a distinction: percentage growth (rate of change) and absolute numeric growth can point to different states. Smaller states or metro areas with emerging communities can show the fastest percent increases even while adding fewer people in raw terms; but the state lists and figures cited emphasize absolute counts, so New York, California and Illinois will likely top numeric growth simply because they start from larger bases ^{[2] [3]}.

4. Drivers of growth: immigration, fertility and youthful age structure

Reporting identifies three main mechanisms: immigration (higher share of new permanent residents in past decades), higher fertility among Muslim families compared with national averages, and a younger age profile that produces more births as cohorts reach childbearing age — all of which underpin the projected U.S. increases to 2030 ^{[1] [4] [5]}. Local variations — e.g., particular immigrant-origin streams or distinct fertility norms in communities — will shape which metros within a state grow fastest ^[4].

5. Conversion and local dynamics: Illinois as a case study

Some state-level reporting flags conversion as a nontrivial factor in specific places: Justice For All’s brief note and derivative coverage single out Illinois as having seen roughly 25% growth in part attributable to conversion, an example of how local religious dynamics can amplify demographic shifts beyond immigration and births ^{[6] [7]}. Available sources do not provide a comparable conversion estimate for other states, so Illinois stands out in current reporting ^{[6] [7]}.

6. Data limits and competing estimates — why exact rankings vary

All sources warn about data quality and differing methods: the 2020 U.S. Religion Census, Pew surveys and private compilations produce different totals (e.g., 3.45m vs. 4.5m vs. ~3.85m), and state tallies from aggregators like World Population Review and DataPandas use varied inputs. Analysts say these figures are imperfect — voluntary surveys, undercounting and reluctance to answer religious questions skew estimates — which means state rankings are robust in broad strokes but imprecise in fine detail ^{[2] [8] [4]}.

7. Alternative viewpoint: percentage gains could favor smaller states and suburbs

Some analysts and local studies argue that the fastest percentage increases appear in suburban “collar” counties and smaller metros — for example, collar-county growth around Chicago — producing rapid local change even if the state’s absolute additions still concentrate in big cities ^[9]. That view suggests political and social impacts may be disproportionate to raw population numbers in some localities ^[9].

8. Bottom line for readers and policymakers

Using the available state tallies and Pew-style projections, expect New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey and Texas to record the largest absolute Muslim population increases by 2030 because they already host the biggest communities ^{[2] [3] [1]}. Exact counts and percentages will vary by data source; smaller states and suburban areas may show the fastest percentage growth and local political effects even as the biggest numeric growth remains in the major states named ^{[9] [8]}.