Which U.S. states gained or lost population most recently?
Executive summary
The most recent publicly reported state-level shifts show Sun Belt giants — Texas and Florida — among the largest gainers in raw population and growth rate, while long-standing population losers include New York, California and Illinois, which have seen notable net domestic out‑migration in recent years [1] [2] [3]. Federal and independent data providers show a broader pattern: growth concentrated in the South and West, declines or stagnation across parts of the Northeast and Midwest, with immigration and domestic migration as the key drivers [4] [5] [3].
1. Biggest gainers in the latest counts: Texas and Florida lead in raw gains and high growth rates
Recent compilations put Texas at the top for absolute population gain and with a higher annual growth rate — cited around 1.34% per year — while Florida posted one of the largest one‑year percentage increases (Florida grew roughly 3.37% between 2023 and 2024 in one independent analysis), reinforcing that these two Sun Belt states captured much of the nation’s recent movement [1] [2]. These gains reflect a mix of domestic in‑migration, job and housing market dynamics, and continuing international immigration; multiple sources emphasize Texas, Florida and California as states that will account for outsized portions of near‑term population increases [1] [6].
2. Who lost population most recently: New York, California, Illinois among the notable losers
Analysts and news summaries point to large net domestic outflows from New York and California in the most recent year‑to‑year measurements, with New York’s drop driven largely by New York City departures and California experiencing the largest domestic loss even as it still attracted international migrants [3]. Illinois has recorded sustained declines over a decade, joining a smaller set of states that have now posted multiple years of net loss or stagnation [3] [7]. WorldPopulationReview and other state‑ranking compilations corroborate that interior and high‑cost states have struggled more to retain residents [1] [7].
3. The regional story: South and West grow, Northeast and Midwest struggle
Multiple demographic projections and retrospectives put the mid‑to‑long‑term shift squarely toward the South and West: the Census and academic projection work predicted the South and West would capture the bulk of growth through 2025 and beyond, and contemporary datasets show that pattern already unfolding in recent annual estimates [4] [5]. This regional tilt is visible in both raw increases and percent gains, producing political and economic implications as states gaining population also tend to gain congressional seats and business investment in projections [4] [6].
4. Why these changes: births, deaths, immigration, and domestic moves — and limits of the data
Recent reporting highlights that natural increase has weakened nationally while net immigration and interstate migration explain most of the recent state shifts; for example, some states registered natural increases but still lost population because domestic outflow overwhelmed births plus international inflow [3] [8]. Federal projections warn that fertility and immigration assumptions are uncertain and that short‑run yearly changes can be noisy; some data products also mix vintage estimates and projections, so caution is warranted when treating a single year’s rank as a durable trend [8] [9].
5. Competing narratives and hidden agendas in coverage
Public and private outlets emphasize different angles: state boosters and economic development offices often highlight job creation and housing supply when touting gains, while critics point to affordability and service strains; conversely, coverage of losing states can accentuate fiscal stress or blame local policy without fully accounting for national demographic forces like aging and migration flows [1] [7]. Some commercial sites project long‑range winners and losers that feed policy debates — readers should note when analyses conflate short‑term estimates with multi‑decade forecasts and check original Census or CBO notices for methodological caveats [8] [5].