How have rates of sexual assault of women in the U.S. changed over the last decade?
Executive summary
Reported rates of forcible rape and sexual assault in the United States have declined on long historical timelines but remain high and undercounted: FBI data compiled by Statista shows reported forcible-rape rates through 2023 that are lower than peak decades earlier [1], and long-term surveys and government analyses document substantial declines in reported female victimization from the 1990s into the 2010s [2]. At the same time national surveys and advocacy groups say lifetime prevalence stays large — roughly one in five to one in four women report completed or attempted rape or sexual violence in lifetime estimates used by major groups [3] [4].
1. Long-term declines in reported incidents — the headline trend
Publicly available justice-system series show a downward trajectory in reported rape over decades: analyses drawing on the FBI and National Crime Victimization Survey note that annual rates of female rape or sexual assault fell dramatically from the mid‑1990s into the 2010s — one DOJ analysis cited a 58% drop from 1995 to 2010 [2]. Statista’s reproduction of FBI forcible‑rape rates through 2023 continues to show those lower post‑1990s levels compared with earlier spikes [1]. Those are the data often cited to say “rape has been declining” over multiple decades [2].
2. Measurement matters — different surveys, very different numbers
National point‑in‑time or lifetime prevalence estimates differ widely because of definitions and methods. The CDC’s and advocacy groups’ lifetime figures — commonly reported as roughly 1 in 5 women experiencing completed or attempted rape, or broader sexual violence measures showing more than 50% of women experiencing some form of sexual violence over a lifetime depending on definition — contrast with annual NCVS incident counts and FBI reported‑crime tallies [3] [4] [5]. Researchers warn that survey wording, whether the survey counts attempted acts or only legally defined forcible rape, and whether it covers lifetime versus yearly incidence can all produce large swings in reported rates [2] [6].
3. Underreporting and invisible cases keep the picture incomplete
All major sources emphasize underreporting. FBI and DOJ tallies capture crimes known to police; national victimization surveys aim to measure unreported assaults but still have limits. Advocacy groups and researchers note that only a minority of sexual assaults are reported to law enforcement, so official case counts understate prevalence; RAINN and CDC materials stress that millions of women have lived experience of sexual violence even where annual reporting numbers are lower [4] [7]. The result: declining reported rates do not necessarily mean the same magnitude of decline in the true number of assaults [2] [7].
4. Who is most affected — age and identity matter
Multiple sources identify young women as the highest‑risk group: women aged roughly 18–24 — including both students and non‑students — face substantially elevated risk for sexual assault compared with older women [4] [8]. The CDC and advocacy reporting also show disproportionate burdens on American Indian/Alaska Native women and other marginalized groups [7] [9]. Campus surveys can show short‑term shifts — for instance, University of Colorado Boulder reporting 2024 rates lower than 2015 but slightly up from 2021 — revealing that local trends can differ from national aggregates [10].
5. Recent years and regional differences — mixed signals
More recent single‑year counts and state rankings show variation: Statista’s 2023 compilation of FBI data lists reported rape counts and rates by area [1], and state‑level summaries like World Population Review show higher per‑capita rates in certain states such as Alaska [11]. Some private analyses in 2024–25 report large absolute incident counts (e.g., six‑figure totals in aggregated 2024–25 reports), but methodologies and sources vary across those publications, so they should not be conflated with DOJ/NCVS time series without careful comparison [12] [13].
6. Policy and interpretation — why trends may move
Experts point to multiple explanations for long‑term declines in reported rates: changes in law enforcement practices, prevention programming, social changes, and survey design differences have all been proposed [2] [6]. At the same time movements such as #MeToo likely affected reporting behavior and public awareness, complicating simple before/after comparisons: increased awareness can raise reporting in some settings even as true incidence may fall or rise [2] [11].
7. What reporting gaps mean for readers and policymakers
Available sources do not provide a single definitive answer about how the true rate of sexual assault has changed year‑to‑year over the last decade; we have declining reported rates in criminal statistics and persistent, high lifetime prevalence in survey‑based measures [2] [3]. Policymakers and journalists must interpret both data streams together, prioritize prevention funding and services highlighted by public‑health research, and treat state and subpopulation differences as central to targeting responses [6] [9].
Limitations and next steps: these conclusions derive from DOJ/FBI trend reporting, national surveys and leading advocacy groups in the assembled sources; some privately produced 2024–25 counts and rankings use different methods and should be compared cautiously [1] [12]. For a precise year‑by‑year numeric trend over the last decade, consult the NCVS and FBI time series data tables directly [1] [14].