What percent of marriages end up in divorce
Executive summary
The short answer: current, careful estimates put the share of first marriages that ultimately end in divorce at roughly 40–42 percent, not the oft-repeated “50%” myth, but the true figure depends heavily on the method and timeframe used (survey-derived survival estimates roughly in the 40% band) [1] [2]. National annual rates – divorces per 1,000 population or per 1,000 married women – have been falling in recent decades, which complicates converting a calendar-year “divorce rate” into a lifetime probability for any single marriage [3] [4].
1. Why a single percentage is slippery: different measures, different stories
Demographers report multiple metrics — crude divorce rates (divorces per 1,000 people), refined divorce rates (divorces per 1,000 married women), and lifetime survival estimates of marriage cohorts — and each answers a different question; crude rates summarize how many divorces happen in a year and have declined to about 2.4 divorces per 1,000 people in recent reporting, while the refined rate was around 14–14.4 divorces per 1,000 married women in 2023, reflecting the population actually “at risk” of divorce [4] [3].
2. The best operational answer: cohort and survival estimates
Studies that track marriage cohorts or use survey-based life-table methods provide the closest answers to “what percent of marriages end in divorce,” and several recent analyses converge on roughly 40% for first marriages; for example, researchers using SIPP and ACS data argue that under current patterns about 40% of today’s first marriages would end in divorce, and some outlets summarize similar projections near 41% (Institute for Family Studies analysis; DivorceWriter summary) [1] [2].
3. Why the long-standing “50%” figure persists and why it’s misleading
The headline “half of marriages end in divorce” arose from simple comparisons of marriages and divorces in single years or older cohort snapshots and does not account for changing marriage timing, lower marriage rates among lower-education groups, remarriage, spousal death, and falling divorce hazards; more refined analyses that adjust for who is married and follow marriages over time show lower eventual dissolution than the crude 50% claim [3] [2].
4. Recent trends pull the percentage down — but unevenly
National data show divorce incidence has declined over recent decades — the refined divorce rate peaked around 1980 and fell to about 14.4 per 1,000 married women by 2023, and annual divorce counts and crude rates have dropped as marriage patterns and the composition of who marries changed — shifts that, all else equal, reduce the projected lifetime risk of divorce for recent marriage cohorts [3] [4]. At the same time, cohort studies indicate substantial heterogeneity: marriages formed more recently have shown higher 10-year survival than in earlier decades, implying future lifetime percentages may be lower than earlier cohorts experienced [1].
5. Important caveats and variations: age, education, geography and measurement
The “about 40%” headline obscures big differences by age at marriage, education, race/ethnicity, and state; younger brides historically face higher 10-year dissolution rates, people with less education are likelier to divorce, and state reporting differences and timing rules (some states don’t report divorce data to national systems) make national aggregates approximate — researchers therefore emphasize different metrics depending on the question [5] [6] [4].