What tiebreakers would decide the AFC No. 1 seed between the Broncos and Patriots if they finish with identical records?
Executive summary
If the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots finish with identical overall records for the AFC’s best mark, the NFL’s two-club tiebreaker sequence would be applied in order: [1] head-to-head result, [2] conference record, [3] record vs. common opponents, then additional steps such as strength of victory if needed — with division record relevant only if they are in the same division (they are not). This order and the importance of head-to-head and conference record are explicitly described in current playoff-standings coverage and tiebreaker summaries [4] [5] [6].
1. Head-to-head: the first and decisive barometer
The initial and most decisive tiebreaker for two clubs tied for a conference seed is the head-to-head result — if Denver and New England played each other this season and one team beat the other, that winner gets the higher seed [5] [4]. Coverage repeatedly lists head-to-head as the primary tiebreaker and explains why an early-season meeting or late-season rematch can instantly tilt the race [5] [4].
2. Conference record: what matters when they didn’t meet or split
If the teams did not play each other, or if they split a two-game series (not possible between AFC teams from different divisions in a single season), the next tiebreaker is each team’s record in conference games — teams with the better AFC record win the tiebreak [5] [4]. Several outlets note that conference win percentage is commonly pivotal in multi-team AFC battles and is already being used midseason to rank contenders [7] [5].
3. Common opponents: the next layer of comparison
Should head-to-head and conference record fail to separate Denver and New England, the next step is record against common opponents (minimum number of common games applies). Reporting and tiebreaker guides list common opponents after conference record and describe the technical requirement that at least four common games typically must be available for a valid comparison [4] [8].
4. Strength of victory and beyond: when records remain identical
If the tie still stands after common opponents, the league proceeds to strength of victory (the combined winning percentage of teams each club beat) and other statistical measures described in tiebreaker manuals and summaries [4] [8] [6]. Media tiebreaker explainers and NFL procedure summaries list these as later, more technical steps used only when basic head-to-head/record comparisons don’t resolve the tie [4] [8].
5. Division record: not directly applicable here — but why outlets mention it
Division record is a key tiebreaker when teams are in the same division or when ranking teams within a division; the Broncos (AFC West) and Patriots (AFC East) are in different divisions, so division record would not decide the two-club AFC No. 1 tiebreak unless an earlier step referenced a divisional tiebreak format first [5] [9]. Several stories nevertheless discuss division record because many AFC races also involve intra-division ties and newsroom pieces aim to cover those permutations [5].
6. Real-world context: how this has been used this season
Recent season coverage shows outlets already applying these rules weekly: sites tracking the 2025 playoff picture explicitly rank teams using head-to-head and conference records first, then common opponents and strength of victory for close races [4] [6]. Bet and odds pieces point out that conference win percentage has already given Colts/Broncos advantages over New England at points in the year — illustrating how conference record swings the seeding picture in practice [7].
7. Practical takeaway for Broncos and Patriots fans
For fans tracking scenarios: winning a head-to-head matchup against your rival is the cleanest path to the No. 1 seed; if that didn’t happen, piling up AFC wins matters most. If both teams finish equal overall and equal in conference, the tiebreaker calculus moves to common opponents and then statistical measures like strength of victory — outcomes media trackers and official standings sites will compute and publish as soon as the season ends [5] [4] [6].
Limitations and where reporting is thin: play-by-play tiebreaker permutations can require many micro-calculations (minimum common games, which specific later steps apply next, exact ordering of multi-team eliminations), and available season summaries and tiebreaker explainers provide the procedure but not every hypothetical numeric outcome — detailed final determinations will depend on the final game results and will be published by official league sources and standings trackers [8] [4].