How would head-to-head results between the Broncos and Patriots affect AFC No. 1 seed tiebreaking?
Executive summary
If the Broncos and Patriots finish with identical records atop the AFC, the NFL’s tiebreaker sequence will first check head‑to‑head (not applicable because they did not play), then conference record (both teams are listed at 6‑2 in conference in The Athletic’s reporting), and then common‑games results — which currently favor Denver in several accounts because of a perfect mark vs. the teams both clubs have faced (Broncos 5‑0 vs. five common opponents; Pats 3‑1 in those games) [1] [2].
1. Why head‑to‑head is the obvious first test — and why it’s already out
The NFL tiebreaker hierarchy puts head‑to‑head results first, but multiple outlets note Denver and New England did not meet this season, so that first tiebreaker is unavailable in any two‑team tie between them [3] [1]. That removes the simplest, most decisive comparison and forces the league to move down the formal list to conference record and then common opponents [1].
2. Conference record: the decisive second step — and how the teams stack up
When head‑to‑head cannot be applied, conference record is the next tiebreaker. The Athletic reports the Broncos and Patriots are both 6‑2 in AFC games at the time of its package, meaning conference record would be deadlocked and the process would proceed to the next tiebreaker [2] [1]. Several media pieces specifically call out conference record as the primary decider if both finish with the same overall mark [1].
3. Common opponents: Denver’s present edge if conference record ties
If conference record is tied, the next major step is common opponents. The Athletic and Denver‑focused reporting detail that the two clubs share five common opponents (Raiders, Titans, Jets, Bengals, Giants) and that Denver holds the common‑opponents edge — Broncos 5‑0 versus Patriots 3‑1 in those games — giving Denver the path to the No. 1 seed if overall and conference records end tied [2] [3].
4. Practical scenarios: how remaining schedules make this a live issue
Contemporary playoff trackers and models (The Athletic, Sporting News, Yahoo Sports) emphasize that because the teams don’t play and have tough late runs, the bracket could easily end with identical records, making conference and common‑opponent tiebreakers meaningful [4] [1] [5]. Analysts’ simulators show small percentage swings depending on assumed final records; The Athletic’s model, for example, still gives the Patriots higher odds of the top seed despite Denver’s common‑opponents advantage [2].
5. Conflicting takes in the coverage — who benefits from what reporting?
Most outlets agree on the mechanics: no head‑to‑head, then conference, then common opponents [1] [3]. But narrative framing differs: local Denver coverage highlights the Broncos’ common‑opponent path, while New England and national outlets emphasize the Patriots’ favorable remaining schedule and simulation odds that still favor New England [3] [2]. Those divergent angles reflect implicit local agendas — Denver media highlighting their team’s tiebreaker leverage, New England coverage pointing to probabilistic models that project wins.
6. What’s not in the reporting or still unsettled
Available sources do not mention the precise full list of remaining games’ outcomes needed to flip conference record advantages, nor do they provide a game‑by‑game sensitivity table for every tiebreak step (not found in current reporting). Also not covered in these excerpts is whether injuries, strength‑of‑victory, or later tiebreakers (e.g., strength of schedule, points differential) become relevant — coverage stops at common opponents and models’ probabilities [2] [3].
7. Bottom line for fans tracking the No. 1 seed
If Denver and New England finish tied and never played head‑to‑head, conference record is the next decider; current snapshots show both at 6‑2 so the race would then likely hinge on common opponents, where reporting lists Denver with the current advantage [2] [3]. Fans should therefore watch each team’s remaining AFC games closely (they matter for conference record) and follow results against mutual opponents — those outcomes determine which club holds the tiebreaker if overall records align [1] [4].