How would strength of victory and strength of schedule affect broncos vs patriots tiebreak for top seed?
Executive summary
If Denver and New England finish tied for the AFC’s top seed, the NFL applies conference record first (both teams are 6-2 in AFC play as of recent reports), then record vs. common opponents (Broncos lead that series now, 5-0 vs. Patriots’ 3-1) — strength of victory (SOV) and strength of schedule (SOS) come later in the sequence and only matter if earlier tiebreakers do not resolve the tie (sources: The Athletic, ProFootballNetwork, PlayoffStatus) [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not give a current SOV or SOS number for either team, but multiple outlets note Denver presently owns the common-opponent edge that places them ahead [1] [2].
1. How the league actually breaks a two‑team tie: the prescribed order
The NFL’s tiebreaker protocol for two teams from different divisions chasing a seed starts with head-to-head (if played), then conference record, then record vs. common opponents (minimum four), and only after those does the strength-of‑victory metric come into play; strength of schedule is used still later in the sequence if needed (playoff-status summaries and tiebreaker guides lay out these steps) [3] [4].
2. Why the Broncos currently sit ahead: common opponents, not SOV
Reporting from The Athletic and ProFootballNetwork shows both teams share a 6-2 AFC record, which means the next relevant tiebreaker is record versus common opponents; Denver holds that edge — listed as 5-0 against the Raiders, Titans, Jets, Bengals and Giants compared with New England’s 3-1 mark in those games — and that common-opponent advantage is what currently gives Denver the top seed [1] [2].
3. Where strength of victory (SOV) would fit and what it measures
Strength of victory is defined as the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten; it’s a measure of how “quality” a team’s wins were and is explicitly part of tiebreaker calculations after common games (playoff-status and tiebreaker explainers show SOV as the later step, with lower average opponent win percentage being better when rankings are created) [3]. In practice SOV only decides seeding when head-to-head, conference record and common‑opponent records (and other earlier rules) fail to separate the clubs [3].
4. Strength of schedule (SOS): a last resort, not an immediate weapon
Strength of schedule — opponents’ aggregate win percentage — is used further down the list and is not the immediate decider when conference and common-opponent tiebreakers already separate teams. Outlets that track playoff permutations emphasize SOS/SOV as tie‑breakers only when earlier, more direct comparisons don’t resolve the tie [3] [4].
5. Practical implications down the stretch: what each team needs to do
Because Denver currently leads the common-opponent tiebreaker, the simplest path for New England is to finish with a better overall or conference record than Denver so the tiebreaker sequence never reaches SOV/SOS; multiple outlets note that one additional conference win by either club would shift the tiebreaker calculus immediately (NBC Boston and ProFootballNetwork explain how a Broncos win vs. Raiders could flip conference numbers) [5] [2].
6. Limits of the public reporting and what’s not yet available
Available sources do not publish up‑to‑the‑minute SOV or SOS averages for each team here, nor do they list every potential permutation numerically; PlayoffStatus and tiebreaker explainers provide the methodology but not the current computed SOV/SOS values for Broncos vs. Patriots in these search results [3]. That means any claim about which team would win on SOV/SOS alone is not supported by the current reporting provided.
7. Competing narratives and hidden incentives in coverage
Coverage is emphasizing the Broncos’ common-opponent edge as the decisive factor now (The Athletic, ProFootballNetwork), while some local outlets highlight strength-of-schedule angles to bolster their team’s case — a framing device that can suggest a team has “better resume” without the tiebreaker ever reaching SOV/SOS [1] [6]. Readers should recognize outlets often spotlight metrics that favor their audience’s team; the formal NFL rulebook sequence, not narrative, ultimately determines the seed [3].
Bottom line: strength of victory and strength of schedule are real tiebreakers, but they are contingency tools down the list. For Denver vs. New England this season the decisive factor reported now is common‑opponent record (Broncos), and SOV/SOS would only matter if head‑to‑head, conference record and common‑opponent comparisons fail to separate the clubs — a scenario current sources have not shown to be the likely final outcome [1] [2] [3].