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What could happen if Cristiano Ronaldo is banned from Portugal's first two world cup matches, and Portugal's third match is in Las Vegas?
Executive summary
Cristiano Ronaldo received a red card in a World Cup qualifier and must serve at least a one‑match suspension (the next qualifier vs Armenia); FIFA disciplinary rules mean that a harsher ruling could extend that ban into the 2026 World Cup and could be two to three matches depending on whether the committee treats the incident as violent conduct (potentially keeping him out of Portugal’s first one or two group matches) [1] [2] [3]. Several outlets note that if Portugal finish second and go to play‑offs, Ronaldo could serve extra suspended games in those play‑offs and thus be available for the World Cup opener — but a three‑match standard penalty for “assault” would usually see him miss the first two group games [4] [2] [5].
1. What the rules actually say — mandatory suspension and carry‑over risk
FIFA’s disciplinary framework imposes an automatic one‑match ban for a red card and allows supplemental discipline for violent conduct; reporting says a red for “assault” can carry a three‑match suspension, and suspensions for competitive fixtures can carry over into finals of the relevant competition (meaning qualifying suspensions can apply at the World Cup) [1] [2] [6].
2. Likely punishments being discussed by journalists and analysts
Commentators and analysts have argued FIFA could add one or two further matches to the mandatory ban — NBC Sport and others flagged the possibility of a total two‑ to three‑game suspension in light of the elbow incident — with FIFA historically taking weeks to issue supplemental rulings [3] [3]. BBC and other outlets cite the disciplinary code’s three‑match guideline for assault as the yardstick most likely to keep Ronaldo out of two World Cup group games [2].
3. How Portugal’s qualification route changes the practical outcome
Multiple stories stress a key conditional: if Portugal qualify directly (win vs Armenia) Ronaldo’s remaining suspension would most likely fall across the World Cup group stage; but if Portugal finish second and must play play‑offs, Ronaldo could serve suspended matches in those play‑offs and therefore be available for the World Cup opener [4] [7]. In short: Portugal’s results between now and the tournament materially affect whether any multi‑match ban actually sidelines him at the finals [4].
4. The specific scenario you asked about — banned for first two World Cup matches
If FIFA imposes a multi‑match suspension (two or three matches) and Portugal qualify directly, Ronaldo would miss the opener and plausibly the second group match — outlets repeatedly state that a three‑match ban would equate to missing the first two group games plus the pre‑World Cup qualifier already mandated [2] [5] [3]. That would force Portugal to start the tournament without their captain and record goalscorer for pivotal fixtures.
5. Portugal’s third group match being in Las Vegas — logistical and sporting consequences
Available sources do not mention Las Vegas specifically in relation to Portugal’s 2026 fixtures; they do, however, note that missing multiple group matches would mean Ronaldo could still return later in the group stage if the suspension length permits. If the third match happens to be in Las Vegas and the ban is only two matches, Ronaldo would be eligible to play that Las Vegas match once his suspension is served — but none of the current reports confirm schedule details tying Portugal’s third match to Las Vegas or discuss travel/time‑zone impacts (not found in current reporting) [3] [2].
6. Tactical and public‑relations fallout for Portugal and Ronaldo
Journalists note immediate tactical disruption: missing Ronaldo alters Portugal’s attacking plan and leadership on the pitch, and the national team would have to adjust personnel and strategy for at least the opening fixtures [8] [9]. There’s also reputational risk: an extended ban would make Ronaldo’s farewell World Cup more contentious, and Portugal FA actions such as appeals are already being discussed in the press [10] [9].
7. Appeals, precedent and timing — why the situation can change
Several outlets report Portugal can appeal and that FIFA has, in past cases, varied bans (including two‑match penalties in some serious incidents); that means the final outcome depends on the Disciplinary Committee’s decision and any appeals process, which can take a few weeks [3] [10]. Past examples cited in coverage show FIFA sometimes hands down two matches for serious non‑assault conduct, and three for assault — those precedents underpin the range pundits are discussing [2] [3].
8. Bottom line and what to watch next
Watch three things: [11] Portugal’s result vs Armenia (direct qualification vs play‑offs changes where suspensions are served) [4], [12] the FIFA Disciplinary Committee’s ruling and any appeal (timing and length of supplemental discipline) [3] [10], and [13] official match scheduling for Portugal at the 2026 finals to confirm whether the third group game is indeed in Las Vegas — current reporting does not link the ban to a confirmed Las Vegas fixture (not found in current reporting) [3] [2].