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Fact check: If a defensive player so mush as breathes on Patrick Mahommes, there is a 50/50 chance the referee will throw a flag.

Checked on January 23, 2025

1. Summary of the results

The claim about referees consistently favoring Patrick Mahomes with penalty calls is significantly more complex than the original statement suggests. Statistical evidence shows that Mahomes actually ranks 8th in roughing the passer penalties, not first, and the Chiefs receive fewer defensive pass interference calls than the league average [1]. In fact, over three seasons, the Chiefs have been penalized 147 yards more than their opponents [2].

However, there is documented evidence of controversial calls in Mahomes' favor, including instances where minimal contact resulted in penalties [3]. NFL senior VP of officiating Walt Anderson has acknowledged that referees are "probably" going to throw flags for head contact with Mahomes [4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors are missing from the original statement:

  • Mahomes leads the league in interceptions and touchdowns called back, but this is primarily due to his high volume of pass attempts [5]
  • There are documented instances where Mahomes did NOT receive favorable calls, such as during a game against the 49ers where a potentially dangerous play near his neck went unflagged [6]
  • The hesitation of defensive players to tackle Mahomes is not necessarily due to referee bias, but rather their understanding of complex quarterback protection rules, which Mahomes has learned to use strategically [7]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement presents a heavily exaggerated and oversimplified view of a complex situation. Several biases are evident:

  • Confirmation bias: People tend to remember controversial calls that support their perspective while ignoring contrary evidence. For example, while the Texans' players and coaches complained about referee bias [8], statistical evidence shows no systematic favoritism [1]
  • Selection bias: The statement ignores instances where Mahomes didn't receive favorable calls [6]
  • Numerical misrepresentation: While individual games might show disparity in penalties (like the Texans game with 8 penalties vs Chiefs' 4) [3], longer-term statistics show no systematic bias [1]

Those who benefit from this narrative include:

  • Opposing teams and fans who can use it as an excuse for losses
  • Media outlets that gain engagement from controversial storylines
  • Social media personalities who can generate viral content from controversial calls
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